Can Pacquiao and Clottey go the distance?

When you look at lines on fights (or even money lines on football games), you are best served by examining them in terms of how they convert to probability. How probable an event is to happen should be reflected in these numbers. For example, you take a look at Pacquiao at -700 to win the fight, and it means he would have a seven out of eight chance (87.5%). Clottey, at +450, has a 10/55 chance, or 18.2%.

Boxing Betting Odds:
WBO Welterweight Title (12 rds. - 147 lbs.) March 13 -- Arlington, TX

MANNY PACQUIAO -700
JOSHUA CLOTTEY +450

Over 9.5 Rounds -170
Under 9.5 Rounds +140

Will the Fight go the Distance?
Yes +110
No -150

Let's apply some of this to look at the distance props on the fight.

According to what's laid out, where the "Over 9.5" is -170, there is about a 63% (17/27) chance that the fight is going to go past the 1:30 mark of the tenth round (that's what 9.5 rounds means). At the same time, you can get +110 that the fight goes the distance, which reflects a 47.6% chance of that happening. Because the price is -150 that the fight will NOT go the distance, what is being said here is that the probability swings from, for lack of better phrasing, a 63% chance FOR a distance fight and a 60% chance AGAINST a distance fight in the span of a round and a half.

The oddsmaker is seemingly placing a lot of faith in the ability of Manny Pacquiao to stop Joshua Clottey during that particular window. Otherwise, there is going to be a lot of extra value for you in betting one distance prop instead of the other, or if you insist, the Yes/No distance prop after the other. Let's face it, if you are betting that the fight goes over 9.5 rounds, and you figure you've got pretty good value, it's almost a freebie to take the "Yes" on the question of whether the fight is going the distance, and you get the +110 price.

At the same time, there is a 41.7% (10/24) chance that the fight will go under 9.5 rounds, and a 60% (15/25) probability that it will end at some point before the bell rings to end the 12th round (yes, it's important to know that this is a 12-round championship fight - some people have made that mistake as well).

Of course, you could parlay both the "Over 9.5" prop and the "no" on the distance question, in which you would be counting on a late stoppage by Pacquiao. However, you would get paid off at a rate of +165, which is not packed with value for a rather unlikely event occurring.

I'm not sure that there are "trends" that are reliable here, but we can look at some past performances to at least inform the decision. Joshua Clottey has never been stopped in a fight. He has lost three times, and two of them have been by decision, and he has also been disqualified against Carlos Baldomir. Yes, before you mention it, a fight that ends by disqualification also ends inside the distance. Clottey has also had something of a history of using his head, which could cause an accidental headbutt, which could end a fight with either a TKO or a technical decision (when they go to the scorecards, as they did when he fought Zab Judah).