Pacquiao vs Clottey: What are the odds?

Analyzing what is going to go on in a fight is different than analyzing a pro football pointspread. While you are laying or taking points with a football team, when you are betting on the basic outcome of a fight, you are wagering on a win or lose proposition, or, in the case of distance props, whether a fight is going to go past a certain point, or whether it will go the distance. There are no "power rankings" available, as there are in football or basketball, that are going to do you any good here. Obviously there is a lot more that is in the abstract. It is not an exact science.

Boxing Betting Odds:
WBO Welterweight Title (12 rds. - 147 lbs.) March 13 -- Arlington, TX

MANNY PACQUIAO -700
JOSHUA CLOTTEY +450

Over 9.5 Rounds -170
Under 9.5 Rounds +140

Will the Fight go the Distance?
Yes +110
No -150

While there are "points" props available, where you are betting on the difference in the judges' scorecards between the two fighters (in the event the fight goes to a decision), let's focus here on the events where you are taking or laying a "price."

When you look at Manny Pacquiao as a favorite of -700 in his fight with Joshua Clottey, what does that mean? Well, it means that you have to LAY seven dollars for every dollar you expect to profit. So a bet of $700 will return $800, which is your original $700 wager, plus the profit of $100.

When you bet the underdog, you are taking a price. Clottey is +450 in this fight. That means that for every $100 you bet, you would see a profit of $450 in the event Clottey, the underdog, were to win. I know that sounds elementary, but you'd be surprised how lost some people get when they are out of their comfort zone of football or basketball, and don't ever engage in money lines in those sports.

So what do those money lines mean? here is where some people really get confused. If a fighter is -700, that means that the oddsmaker is setting the line where Pacquiao has a seven out of eight chance (7/8) to win the fight. So he has a probability of 87.5% of winning. If you are betting on this fight, here is the question you have to ask yourself - "Does Pacquiao have more than an 87.5% chance, in my mind, to win this fight?" Remember that winning is the only thing that is meaningful when betting the winner or the loser; that Clottey puts up a valiant effort is utterly meaningless to you, as the bettor, unless he gets his hand raised.

So just what are the chances of that happening? Well, in this dynamic, Clottey gets +450, and since your $100 buys you a $450 profit, Clottey then has a 100/550 chance (100 + 450) of winning, according to this number. That's about 18.2%. Of course, maybe you're asking why Clottey isn't priced at a number that would reflect him having a 12.5% chance (+700), or why Pacquiao isn't priced where he has an 81.8% chance (-450). Well, the disparity represents the vigorish, the "vig" or the "juice" on the part of the bookmaker. You have to make a determination as to whether there is value at whatever price is posted.

In other words, if you think Clottey has a 25% chance of beating Pacquiao, then he does indeed offer plenty of value at the price that is posted. If you figure Pacquiao has a 95% chance, that represents value with Pacquiao.