Pacquiao vs. Cotto: Eight Things Cotto has to do to Win
by Charles Jay
BetUS boxing betting odds:
WBO Welterweight Title (12 rds. - 147 lbs.)
November 14 -- Las Vegas
MANNY PACQUIAO -275
MIGUEL ANGEL COTTO +200
DRAW +2500
Under 9.5 Rounds -130
Over 9.5 Rounds Even
What will Miguel Angel Cotto have to do to emerge victorious in this welterweight title fight?
HIT ANYTHING -- That means he has to pound the biceps, the forearms, the wrists, the shoulders - anything he can when he has the opportunity. I'm not saying those things are going to score points for him with the judges, but what they are going to do is lay some hurt on Pacquiao, which will have its effect if this fight gets intot he later rounds. He's going to be the naturally bugger man, and he needs to exploit it.
SKIP THE TRACK MEET -- If Cotto has it in his mind that he is going to become a "boxer" in this fight, he needs to forget about it. Cotto is not a natural boxer; he is a natural power puncher. What he considers boxing is actually "running." It's a retreat, in circles, around the ring with the idea of getting enough punches in to win the fight. I admit he can frustrate Pacquiao with this, but there is also the other effect, which is that he will allow Pacquiao to stalk, gather strength, and nail him. Remember that in the fight with Margarito, Cotto ran around so much that all he did was get himself tired, which made him easy pickings for the veteran.
DON'T JUST STAND THERE -- I know; this may sound to you like it's a little counterintuitive to what we just said. What we mean, though, is that Cotto just can't stand there and pose for Pacquiao, because he is going to get himself in a pattern where Pacquiao will just step in with combiantions, get out, and make himself very difficult to hit. You must find a happy medium between running and simply standing and throwing. A little lateral movement helps, which leads us to....
MOVE LEFT, THROW LEFT -- Conventional wisdom is that the best way to beat a southpaw is by throwing straight right hands. Some of us disagree with that. The left hook has to travel a shorter distance to land, whether it's to the head or body. Cotto needs to continue stepping to his left, and unloading with left hooks. That way he is going to not only keep moving away from Pacquiao's better power punch, but at the same time get his best punches off, and he does have a beautiful left hook, whether it is thrown downstairs or upstairs.
GET INSIDE -- Maybe this is easier said done, but I think Pacquiao would much rather have a distance between himself and Cotto so that he can jump in, land, and get out. Cotto needs to do what he can to close the distance, and do as much inside work as possible. He'll be able to take better advantage of the fact that he's the bigger man and won't be as affected by odd angles.
JAB -- Yes, but don't jab in retreat. A nicely thrown jab always upsets the timing of the opponent, and he doesn't come at you with such impunity. Pacquiao will undoubtedly be looking to come in under that jab, but he can't just come in without any resistance.
DON'T LOAD UP -- There has never been a game plan worse for any fighter, even a puncher, than playing to land that one big shot. If Cotto gets a little frustrated in the early going, this is what it might come down to for him. His best chance to land that shot is to stay busy and just let it happen. Don't swing for the fences, because he may wind up hitting nothing but air.
IMPROVISE -- Of the two fighters, Cotto is the one who is much more mechanical, and smart opponents have a way of taking advantage of that. In fact, they watch the tapes and they come up with game plans to exploit that very thing. What Cotto might want to consider doing is present Pacquiao with something completely unexpected, and which doesn't involve just running around the ring. Throw the other guy off, and you might force a mistake!
