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Boxing Odds: Diaz vs Malignaggi
by Charles Jay

Jr. Welterweights - 12 Rounds
December 12 - Chicago
JUAN DIAZ -160
PAUL MALIGNAGGI +120
OVER 9.5 ROUNDS -550
UNDER 9.5 ROUNDS +375
For betting purposes, let's take a look at the contestants:
DIAZ (35-2, 17 KO's), the -160 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, was an outstanding amateur, winning 105 of 110 bouts. he was too young for the 2000 Olympics, so he turned professional at the age of 16, rather than wait four years. he took it slow early, then started to build, registering wins over veteran trial horses like Roy Delgado, Eleazer Contreras, Francisco Lorenzo and Martin O'Malley. His first real test took place in July of 2004, and in that fight he won a decision over Lavka Sim to capture the WBA lightweight title. Diaz defended his title successfully five times, but they were not championship-caliber opponents, leading many to question his legitimacy as a champion. However, when he got a chance to unify the WBO and WBA versions of the title against Acelino Freitas in April 2007, he seized the moment, beating Freitas to the punch consistently and being declared the winner when Freitas refused to come out after the eighth round. He added the IBF title to his mantle six months later with a stoppage of Julio Diaz. He laid an egg with his lackluster performance in March 2008 when he was beaten on a split decision by Nate Campbell. He rebounded in a sense with a split decision over aggressive Michael Katsidis, which set up his biggest test ever, against Juan Manuel Marquez for the WBO lightweight crown that was vacant at the time. Diaz went toe-to-toe with Marquez, and actually found himself ahead by two points on one of the scorecards, when was overwhelmed by a Marquez onslaught in the ninth round and fell to a TKO defeat. on August 22, when he faced Paul Malignaggi, Diaz was expected by some to walk through his opponent, but was outboxed and outfoxed for much of the way, and the fact that he was awarded a unanimous decision was greeted with jeers by many fans, who detected a hometown decision.
MALIGNAGGI (26-3, 5 KO's), the +120 underdog at BetUS, won the U.S. championship at 132 pounds in 2001 and turned pro in July of the same year. He won his first 21 fights, and what is interesting is that even though he stopped his first three opponents, he's knocked only two out since. One of the reasons has been a right hand that continually gets injured. Malignaggi had a rather ordinary list of opponents under his belt when he stepped in against then-undefeated Miguel Angel Cotto for the WBO 140-lb. title in June 2006. Cotto knocked Malignaggi to the canvas in the second round but did not put away Malignaggi, who showed heart in going the whole distance, losing the decision. He returned to the ring to beat Edner Cherry in a lackluster performance, then scored a 12-round decision over Lovemore N'Dou to win the IBF junior welterweight title in what was an almost perfect effort. He made two successful defenses - a decision over Herman Ngoudjo and a split decision in a rematch with N'Dou. Then it was on to a big payday against Ricky Hatton, and Malignaggi kind of went flat, and was non-combative before being stopped in eleven rounds. His reputation took a hit with that fight, but he got some of it back when he fought Diaz in Houston in August. Malignaggi lost the decision, a controversial one, and complained long and hard in the ring about it. Now he's got another chance.
The fundamentals of this fight are pretty much the same as they were the first time around; Diaz is the more aggressive fighter, while Malignaggi will be the guy who is using movement and trying to outbox his man. There were times in the first fight when he simply made Diaz look like an amateur, and that is something that some people discovered about him - he is not as good as he had been touted. Actually, the way Diaz has been protected in his career, it really should not have been much of a surprise that he either lost or didn't look good against the better opposition.
Now Malignaggi has his shot in a neutral venue, getting Diaz away from his hometown of Houston, where he had fought many of his bouts. He has the capacity to outbox Diaz again, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if that happened, but you have to remember that Diaz can score points with aggressiveness, and this time the price on Diaz is not nearly as daunting as it was last time, when he went off at -550. This time it is not a big price to lay; however, for a guy who is not a big knockout puncher, getting Malignaggi out of there will be just as difficult, if not more so, than last time.
Really, it's not that bad a play to go with Diaz at -160, because I am relatively certain he will show up, while we haven't always gotten a total effort out of Malignaggi. However, swallowing hard, we will look at what seems like a virtual certainty, which is that the fight will go the distance, so we've got some cushion in the over/under prop, which is -550 that it goes over the 9.5 rounds.
JAY'S PLAY: OVER 9.5 ROUNDS (-550) ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)




