Boxing Betting Free Picks
Chad Dawson vs. Antonio Tarver II - Knockout Alert
by Charles Jay
BetUS boxing betting odds:
IBF-IBO Light Heavyweight Title (12 rds. - 175 lbs.)
May 9 -- Las Vegas
CHAD DAWSON -700
ANTONIO TARVER +500
Over 9.5 Rounds -450
Under 9.5 Rounds +325
For betting purposes, let's size up the contestants:
DAWSON (27-0, 17 KO's), the -700 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, is a native of South Carolina who eventually settled in Connecticut. He reportedly won 67 of 80 amateur bouts, and was a national champion at 165 pounds. He made his pro debut in August of 2001 with a second-round TKO of Steve Garrett. Dawson faced very light opposition until December of 2004, when he stopped Carl Daniels in seven rounds for something called the "WBC Youth Middleweight Title." Dawson had turned pro as a middleweight, moved as high as 170 pounds, and went back to 160 for that fight, but soon grew to the super middleweight class, where he beat Ian Gardner for the NABO title. In June of 2006, Dawson took advantage of the opportunity to fight Eric Harding for the NABF light heavyweight title. The two guys from Connecticut fought in California for that crown, with Dawson winning a unanimous decision. That led to the first world title shot (WBC version), which Dawson made good on with a lopsided decision over Tomasz Adamek. The WBC ordered that Dawson defend his title against Adrian Diaconu, but Dawson, who had begged out of a bout with Diaconu before, instead relinquished his WBC title because he wanted to fight Antonio Tarver for what was presumably more money. The two did battle last October 11, for the IBF and IBO titles, and Dawson won a unanimous decision, taking the verdict by seven points on two judges' cards and nine points on another.
TARVER (27-5, 19 KO's), the +500 underdog at BetUS, was a widely decorated amateur, winning the U.S. Championship twice, the National Golden Gloves, and the World Amateur title at light heavyweight. He also was the American representative at 178 pounds in the 1996 Olympics, losing to Vassily Jirov but taking home a bronze medal. Tarver spent an awful lot of time in the amateur ranks, however, and didn't turn pro until the age of 28. He was undefeated until facing Eric Harding in an IBF elimination bout in June of 2000, and found himself out-gunned, going down in the 11th round and dropping a unanimous decision. He later rehabilitated himself with a win over Reggie Johnson, then a big knockout of Harding in the rematch. That got him a shot at Montell Griffin and the WBC and IBF titles. It was no contest, as Tarver floored Griffin in the 1st and 12th rounds and won the decision by 14 points on all three cards. Seven months later he was in the ring with Roy Jones, who was moving back down to light heavy after a successful bid for the WBA heavyweight title. Tarver fought well but lost a controversial majority decision, but revenge would be his in May of 2005 as he knocked Jones out in the second round. What followed was a split of two fights against Glen Johnson, a lackluster win over Jones in the rubber match, and a very poor effort against Bernard Hopkins, who won a nine-point decision on all three cards in June of '06. Tarver sat out for a while, but later came back. In April of 2008 he scored a 12-round decision over Clinton Woods in which he captured the IBF and IBO championships. On October 11 there was the fight with Dawson, where Tarver lost his titles via decision.
This fight was supposed to take place on March 14, but it had to be postponed because Dawson suffered a right hand injury in sparring. Reportedly Dawson was able to get back in the gym a few weeks after the diagnosis, which was not a break but a tear of the ligament.
I'm not sure Tarver has accomplished all that much since 2005, when he won the rematch with Glen Johnson. His third fight with Jones was not inspiring, as Tarver looked exhausted, out on his feet and ready to go late in the bout. Jones just didn't have enough to come and get him. The Hopkins fight was embarrassing. The tune-up fights with Muriqi and Danny Santiago demonstrated nothing. Clinton Woods was a paper champion. See where I'm going here? Tarver doesn't really have a lot left, and that is hazardous when stepping in against a fighter who should be just now rounding into his prime.
Tarver will always have boxing skills, and his dimensions generally make things difficult for opponents. But his reflexes aren't what they used to be, and even Tarver is hardly a beaten-up fighter, he is 40 years old already. Dawson is also 6'3" and a southpaw, and so he trumps any style advantages Tarver may purport to have in that regard.
I can't tell you that Dawson is unbeatable, but he is a technically sound fighter who can box or punch (he put Tarver on the deck in the first fight), and he has the ability to control the fight with the jab. His hand speed was too much in the first encounter, and there is no reason to believe things won't be the same the second time around. I would not discount that Tarver could get "old overnight" at a faster pace than others, not necessarily because he's all punched out, but because some of the things he has to rely on - speed, reaction, defense - tend to disappear over the course of time. There has been no "renaissance" in Tarver's career that I can see, and so given the price, I can see a reasonable chance for us to look for a knockout. Yes, that will be tougher if Tarver's ultimate objective is to go the distance and collect his money, but I think Dawson has enough in his arsenal to finish the job he started seven months ago.
Laying 7/1 isn't so appetizing, so I'll go with this fight ending inside of 9.5 rounds, which brings a +325 price in the BetUS boxing betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 9.5 ROUNDS (+325) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
