Boxing Betting Free Picks
Cotto vs. Clottey from Madison Square Gardens
by Charles Jay
CLOTTEY TAKES HIS BEST SHOT BEFORE PARTISAN CROWD
BetUS Boxing Betting Odds:
WBO Welterweight title - 12 Rounds
June 13 -- New York City
MIGUEL ANGEL COTTO -350
JOSHUA CLOTTEY +250
Over 9.5 Rounds -300
Under 9.5 Rounds +220
Exact Fight Outcomes
Cotto by KO, TKO or Disqualification +300
Cotto by Decision or Technical Decision -150
Clottey by KO, TKO or Disqualification +700
Clottey by Decision or Technical Decision +500
Draw or Technical Draw +2000
For betting purposes, let's size up the contestants:
COTTO (33-1, 27 KO's), the -350 favorite at BetUS, fought for Puerto Rico in the 2000 Olympics, and was looked upon as a future world champion when he turned pro with a one-round KO over Jason Doucet in February 2001. Cotto was steered carefully at first, as are many prospects, but gradually moved up in class. When he knocked out veteran Rocky Martinez with a body shot in two rounds in June 2003, it was a signal of things to come. Cotto scored a nice TKO win two fights later over unbeaten Carlos Maussa, who later went on to win a championship. After registering wins over Victoriano Sosa and Lovemore N'Dou, Cotto devastated a fellow unbeaten, Kelson Pinto, to win the vacant WBO 140-pound title on a sixth-round TKO in September of '04. Then the trouble started. In his second defense, against DeMarcus Corley, never looked upon as a puncher, he was staggered, which set off an alarm about his chin. Cotto was considered fortunate to be able to come back and stop Corley in the fifth round. Cotto stopped Ricardo Torres in seven rounds subsequent to that, but not before Cotto was put into trouble by the crisp-punching Torres. Later, Cotto made the move up to the welterweight division and he secured the WBA title with a stoppage of Carlos Quintana in December 2006. He took to the weight well, making four successful title defenses, stopping Zab Judah and scoring a decision over Shane Mosley along the way. Cotto's balloon was burst last July when he defended against Antonio Margarito. He abandoned his aggressive style and became a boxer/runner, scoring points against Margarito but getting weaker as the fight progressed. When Margarito finally caught up to him in the eleventh round, it was over. Cotto's last fight was for the vacant WBO 147-pound title, and he stopped an extremely outgunned Michael Jennings in five rounds.
CLOTTEY (35-2, 20 KO's), the +250 underdog in the BetUS boxing odds, is a native of Accra, Ghana who now lives an trains in the Bronx. He turned pro in Ghana in 1995, and fought almost all his early fights there and in the UK. He won his first twenty fights as a pro, then in Wembley, he was leading on all scorecards against Carlos Baldomir (later to become undisputed welterweight champion) when he was disqualified for landing a low blow in the eleventh round. Apparently there were no warnings at all before the DQ took place. Clottey continued to toil in obscurity, even after coming to the U.S., when he made his debut on American soil with a sixth-round TKO of Jeffrey Hill. His 12-round majority decision over Richard Gutierrez earned him the IBF Inter-Continental title in July 2006, and also put him in line to fight one of the welterweight champions. Clottey eventually went into the ring with Antonio Margarito and lost a decision that was relatively decisive. Clottey got a big break four months later. When Diego Corrales decided to move from lightweight to welterweight, Clottey was selected as the opponent. The result for Clottey was triumphant, as he completely dominated Corrales, flooring him in the eighth and tenth rounds and winning a one-sided decision. Clottey captured the vacant IBF welterweight title in his last fight, a technical decision over Zab Judah.
This fight takes place on the eve of the Puerto Rican Day parade in New York City. So you know that despite the fact that Clottey doesn't live too far from the fight venue, sentiment in the Garden will be pretty high for Cotto.
One thing you can be sure of is that Clottey isn't going to back down from Cotto, which is one of the things that has worked so well for Cotto against under-equipped opponents in the past. However, what might work for Cotto is the fact that he can win the fight a couple of different ways. If he adopts an aggressive style, he obviously doesn't have to go looking for his opponent, and he probably holds the edge in power. If he wants to go running around the ring, like he did against Margarito, he can probably prove too elusive and frustrate Clottey, who is tough, has a peek-a-boo defense that makes him hard to hit, and a good chin, but does not possess the overall skills of Cotto.
It almost hurts me to write that, because I am one of those people (and I don't think there were too many of them) who wasn't slobbering all over Cotto as he was being hailed by some as "the next Oscar De La Hoya." I just felt he wasn't enough of an improviser, didn’t have enough chin, and wasn't big on mental toughness. In the boxing atmosphere we have before us today, there was little doubt he was going to win a world title because if you have enough money and force behind you it's not the hardest thing in the world to get steered to that point. I never thought he was going to be an all-time great, and he certainly isn't. The performance against Margarito, which was kind of gutless and tactically horrible, demonstrated that.
Against Clottey, however, I think he has to much of a skill set. I don't see him scoring a stoppage inside the distance, but I do see him going back and forth between styles enough to keep Clottey a little off-balance, and he'll be brave enough to score the meaningful points because Clottey won't have the raw power. Although as we know with Cotto, his chin is unpredictable.
I'm taking Cotto by decision, which is priced at -150 in the BetUS boxing betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: COTTO BY DECISION (-150) ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
