Giving You Your Props - Mayweather Vs Marquez

As we take a look into the props on the Floyd Mayweather-Juan Manuel Marquez as I might play them, let's first take a look at the principal lines on this bout, as they are posted at BetUS.com:

BetUS Boxing Betting Odds

Welterweights - 12 Rounds

September 19 - Las Vegas

FLOYD MAYWEATHER JR. -450

JUAN MANUEL MARQUEZ +300

OVER 11.5 ROUNDS -150

UNDER 11.5 ROUNDS +120

What I like to do in situations like this is give you an idea of how I think the fight is going to go, and then plug the props into that. So here it is:

From what I've seen from Mayweather in the past, and considering his layoff, it would not surprise me at all to see Marquez look like he was very much in the fight early on. This is someone with many skills who wants to get off to a good start, and Mayweather seems to do a lot of "feeling out" in most cases, unless, of course, his level is so markedly higher than the opponent that he can't help himself (e.g., Arturo Gatti).

Mayweather's practice in many cases has been to let a fighter stay with him in the early stages of the fight, and then make the decision as to when to take the fight over. His command of things is such that he does it almost arbitrarily.

This is not unlike what Ali used to do, except Floyd isn't necessarily giving away rounds. Like Ali, he is not the type who necessarily lands one punch to turn the fight around but does it so subtly and gradually that you hardly even notice it, and then, before you know it, he's built up a big lead and the other guy needs a knockout to win.

The other guy won't get it.

Before we go on, let's take a gander at the BetUS boxing outcome props for this fight:

Fight Outcome - 5 Way

Mayweather Jr by KO, TKO or DQ +175

Mayweather Jr by Decision or Technical Decision -120

Marquez by KO, TKO or DQ +750

Marquez by Decision or Technical Decision +550

Draw or Technical Draw +2500

So why won't Marquez get his knockout? Well, the answer, or at least part of it, is that Mayweather is a smart fighter who is as savvy as anyone you'll see in the ring, and he doesn't often give anyone a clean angle to shoot at. Whether it's a step to the left or right, a movement of the head, a dip and/or duck, or his favorite, a turn of the left shoulder, Mayweather precludes is from knowing what kind of chin he really has because very few people have landed a solid, clean shot on him.

In that way he's kind of like Roy Jones was in his prime. The difference between Mayweather and Jones is that while Jones did it predominantly through his athleticism, and against much slower opponents, Mayweather adds a higher level of know-how and goes at it with the smaller guys. It would have been fascinating to see these guys match up at 154, if they could have been contemporaries of each other at that weight.

I don't want to give you the impression that Marquez is a ham-and-egger. I consider him to easily be one of the top five fighters around today, on a pound-for-pound basis. In this fight - and I say this with the preface that it is under the assumption that Mayweather hasn't gotten old and rusty overnight - he is kind of a "tweener,” in that he really isn't powerful enough to hurt Mayweather with single punches, after all he is a featherweight/junior lightweight fighting above 140.