Boxing Betting Free Picks
Pacquiao vs. Hatton - The Final Analysis
by Charles Jay

BetUS boxing betting odds:
IBO Light Welterweight Title (12 rds. - 140 lbs.)
May 2 -- Las Vegas
MANNY PACQUIAO -275
RICKY HATTON +190
Over 9.5 Rounds -155
Under 9.5 Rounds +125
PROPS - FIGHT OUTCOME
Pacquiao by KO, TKO or Disqualification +135
Pacquiao by Decision or Technical Decision +200
Hatton by KO, TKO or Disqualification +275
Hatton by Decision or Technical Decision +400
Draw or Technical Draw +2500
For boxing betting purposes, let's size up the contestants:
PACQUIAO (48-3-2, 36 KO's), the -275 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, is considered perhaps the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, and is like a deity in his native Philippines. Pacquiao suffered early defeats to Rustico Torrecampo and Medgoen Singsurat, then came roaring back as a fighter, starting at flyweight and moving up to the junior featherweights. In June 2001, Pacman made his United States debut and knocked out Lehlo Ledwaba to win the IBF 122-pound title. What followed shortly afterward, as he began to move up in weight, was a TKO over Marco Antonio Barrera in November of 2003; then a memorable May 2004 fight, where he knocked Juan Manuel Marquez down three times in the first round, only to allow Marquez to settle down and get himself back into the fight. The result was a thrilling draw. The there was a trio of fights against Erik Morales, of which Pacquiao won two, the finale being a third-round KO that happened in November '06. There was a rematch with Barrera, which he won, then a rematch with Marquez, a tough split decision in Las Vegas last March where he captured the WBC 130-pound title. He moved up yet another weight class last June 28,stopping David Diaz in nine rounds to win the WBC lightweight title, which set up the mega-fight with Oscar De La Hoya on December 6. De La Hoya never had a chance. Pacquiao came out and took control right from the start, landing with impunity. After eight rounds of domination (De La Hoya won only one round on one judge's scorecard), Oscar retired in the corner, giving Pacquiao the biggest win of his career.
HATTON (45-1, 32 KO's), the +190 underdog at BetUS, is no stranger to the spotlight. Until he won an IBF title, however, he was virtually unknown to mainstream U.S. fans . Hatton turned pro in September of 1997 and won both a British title and the WBO Inter-Continental crown within a couple of years' time. In March 2001 he captured the World Boxing Union title (recognized in Britain as a major crown) with a fourth-round TKO of Tony Pep. Hatton made fifteen successful title defenses, though his list of opponents was not stellar. Probably the best among them were Vince Phillips and Ben Tackie.
When he fought Kostya Tszyu for the IBF title in June 2005, some thought he had bitten off more than he could chew. Hatton proved otherwise, dominating Tszyu and forcing him to quit in the corner after eleven rounds. In his next fight Hatton added the WBA title to his collection by stopping Carlos Maussa, then won the WBA welterweight title with a decision over Luis Collazo, though he was far from impressive. After beating Juan Urango and Jose Luis Castillo, he then stepped in against Floyd Mayweather in December of 2007. He made Mayweather fight, but found himself fighting a much higher class of fighter than himself, and higher than he was used to. Trailing by a considerable margin on the scorecards, he was stopped in the tenth round. Hatton fought twice during 2008 - taking a near-shutout decision over Juan Lazcano and stopping a rather non-combative Paul Malignaggi in the eleventh round back on November 22.
Floyd Mayweather Sr. is the new trainer for Ricky Hatton. As I mentioned last week, a lot of trainers are very good at selling themselves as some kind of missing ingredient. If Ricky Hatton starts to think very consciously about what Mayweather "taught" him, he's going to get knocked out in short order. You can't lose your instinct by starting to think too much. So you think Mayweather Sr. is going to turn Hatton into a "cutie" all of a sudden? No, I don't think so either. Ultimately Hatton is going to dance with what got him here, which is to be relentless and aggressive.
That's where he might have a problem.
In my opinion, there are two ways to beat Manny Pacquiao. One is to exploit his natural crudeness (if it can even be called that) by boxing him and outclassing him. Another is to simply overpower him and take his head off. Hatton may have enough of a natural size advantage to do the latter, but I don't think he's going to.
I realize that Hatton tries to put constant pressure on an opponent, but I really don't think Pacquiao is going to mind. In fact, having Hatton basically in front of him at all times is going to be an advantage for Pacquiao, because he's not going to have to go looking for his man. He's not going to have a problem with stamina, and he's not going to have much difficulty landing, because I don't consider defense to be one of Hatton's strong suits.
I look at Pacquiao as the guy who has more quickness; the guy who is going to beat you to the punch more often than not. In his own way, and especially coming from the left side and from odd angles (as a southpaw), the effect of Pacquaio's speed is going to be every bit as potent as that of Mayweather Jr. If you recall, Mayweather's speed was a major difference in the fight. Hatton just couldn't keep up.
On an overall basis, I think Pacquiao represents a higher class of fighter. So unless Hatton gets very lucky with a big punch (and he'll find it hard to hit this guy square), we're looking at a possible stoppage, but a likely decision win on the part of the Filipino hero. In that case, it's +200 on that result in the BetUS boxing online betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: PACQUIAO BY DECIISON (+200) ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)




