Boxing Betting Free Picks
Saturday Night Fight's - Diaz vs. Malignaggi
by Charles Jay
BetUS Boxing Betting Odds
Jr. Welterweights - 12 Rounds
August 22 – Houston
JUAN DIAZ -550
PAUL MALIGNAGGI +400
OVER 11.5 ROUNDS -250
UNDER 11.5 ROUNDS +200
For betting purposes, let's take a look at the contestants:
DIAZ (34-2, 17 KO's), the -550 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, won 105 of 110 bouts as an amateur. As he was ruled too young to compete for Mexico in the 2000 Olympics, he turned pro at the age of 16, rather than have to wait until 2004. His apprenticeship period lasted a couple of years, and he was able to chalk up some wins after that over journeymen, including the likes of Roy Delgado, Eleazer Contreras, Francisco Lorenzo and Martin O'Malley, but was not so severely tested before July of 2004, when he won a decision over Lavka Sim to annex the WBA lightweight title. Diaz made five successful defenses, against admittedly questionable championship opponents, then seized the opportunity to unify the WBO and WBA versions of the crown against Acelino Freitas in April 2007. Diaz completely dominated his opponent, winning by stoppage when Freitas refused to come out after the eighth round. He added the IBF title six months later when he stopped Julio Diaz (no relation to him) in nine rounds. Diaz disappointed with his indifference in March 2008 when he got beat on a split decision by Nate Campbell, and took six months off after that. Then it was a split decision over hard-charging Michael Katsidis, which put him in position for the toughest fight of his life, against Juan Manuel Marquez for the WBO lightweight crown that was by then vacant. Diaz matched Marquez punch-for-punch, finding himself even on one card and ahead by two points on another, when he fell victim to a Marquez onslaught in the ninth round that ended it.
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MALIGNAGGI (26-2, 5 KO's), the +400 underdog at BetUS, has a strong amateur background, which was highlighted by a U.S. championship at 132 pounds in 2001. He turned pro in July of 2007 and won his first 21 fights, taking his first three opponents out inside the distance. He's knocked out only two since. Malignaggi had a rather pedestrian roster of opponents until he stepped way up in class against then-undefeated Miguel Angel Cotto for the WBO 140-lb. belt in June of 2006. Cotto floored Malignaggi in the second round but was not able to put away the "Magic Man." In fact, the fight went the entire 12 rounds, with Cotto winning the unanimous decision in what was a more competitive fight than many people had imagined it would be. Malignaggi won plaudits for his guts against the heavy-hitting Cotto. He came back to beat Edner Cherry, then won a 12-round decision over Lovemore N'Dou to capture the IBF junior welterweight title in June 2007. He made two successful defenses - a decision over Herman Ngoudjo and a split nod in a rematch with N'Dou. That led to the fight with Ricky Hatton, where Malignaggi was non-competitive and very tentative before being stopped in eleven rounds. His stock went way down with that fight, and is rather fortunate to have gotten another opportunity so quickly. His last bout was on April 25, an eight-round decision win over Christopher Fernandez.
Frankly, I didn't see Paul Malignaggi's last fight against Christopher Fernandez, but I was told he didn't look very good against someone who is little more than a journeyman. His fight against Ricky Hatton was an indication that he intended to continue with a safety-first strategy. In fact, the more you look at it, the valiant effort against Miguel Cotto was an anomaly, and that was against guy who can't seem to decide whether he is a boxer or a killer (which is what he should be). I must admit that part of the dilemma with him has been a series of problems with his right hand that prevent him from throwing some punches with authority, which is tough because he's a light puncher to begin with. Malignaggi, on merit, didn't really rate a return engagement on HBO, but his promoter is Lou DiBella, who has connections with the network that go back to his position as vice-president of sports programming, so he's here again.
Diaz is aggressive; you have to give him that. At one time he was judged to be the best prospect in boxing, although we know now that he is at least a small step from truly being considered part of boxing's elite. Still, he was able to piece together an excellent effort against Juan Manuel Marquez, backing the champion up and giving him a cut over the right eye before succumbing in the ninth. Diaz will put pressure on Malignaggi; possibly the kind that the "Magic Man" will have a hard time eluding, try as he might. The tactic for him might be to keep clinching, although that will bring Diaz closer.
Diaz is not a big puncher, statistically speaking, but he can inflict some punishment, and it is not likely that Malignaggi will be able to get the kind of respect that will prevent Diaz from continuing to move forward. This is a move up in weight for Diaz, but Malignaggi certainly doesn't "fight bigger," so any advantage that could be derived from that is mitigated. To boot, Diaz is in his hometown, which I think will be intimidating for Malignaggi. I couldn't sit here and tell you that Paulie won't pack it in during the bout. I lost any faith I had in him after the Hatton fight, where he should have had a game plan but didn't.
At the same time, I'm not crazy about the -550 price in the BetUS boxing betting odds. What I would be willing to take a shot with, however, is the +200 number on this fight not going the full route (under 11.5 rounds, that is), on the chance that Diaz could end it in any of a few different ways, all of them pressure-related.
JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 11.5 ROUNDS (+200) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
