Boxing Betting Free Picks
WBA Featherweight Title Fight - Chris John vs. Rocky Juarez
by Charles Jay
BetUS Boxing Betting Odds
WBA Featherweight title - 12 Rounds
September 19 – Las Vegas
Chris John -350
Rocky Juarez +250
Outcome Props:
- Rocky Juarez by KO, TKO or DQ +550
- Rocky Juarez by Decision or Technical Decision +400
- Chris John by KO, TKO or DQ +900
- Chris John by Decision or Technical Decision -250
- Draw or Technical Draw +1600
For boxing betting purposes, let's take a look at the contestants:
JOHN (42-0-2, 22 KO's), the -350 favorite in the BetUS boxing odds, has roots in the Indonesian martial art of wushu, winning a number of championships in that competition. He turned pro with a six-round decision over Firman Kanda in June of 1998. At the time, John was just 19 years old. The next year he won the Indonesian featherweight title, surviving a knockdown to knock out Muhammad Alfaridizi in the 12th round. In 2001 he won the PABA featherweight title over Soleh Sundava and defended that crown four times before winning the interim WBA featherweight belt in September of 2003 with a split decision over Oscar Leon.
He went through a clash of heads with Joe Rojas in the fourth round of their December 2004 fight, which was a title defense, and the technical draw that resulted is the only non-win on his record. He hit the deck in the first round against Derrick Gainer and got up to score an easy decision (April 2005). In what is probably his most significant win, he captured a decision over Juan Manuel Marquez (March of '06), in a fight that was controversial to say the least, because Marquez had to take two penalty points for low blows, although those points really did not factor into the difference. John’s last defense was against Rocky Juarez, and at the end it was a rarity - a unanimous draw that cried out for a rematch. That was his first fight in the United States.
JUAREZ (28-4-1, 20 KO's), the +250 underdog at BetUS, won four U.S. amateur titles who and was a member of the 2000 Olympic team, going on to win a silver medal. His pro debut was in January of 2001 as he scored a decision over Pascali Adorno. After being brought along slowly, he started going into the ring with more experienced competitors, and won the WBC Continental Americas title with a decision over Hector Velasquez, in November 2003. When he beat Zahir Raheem in July 2004 he earned a shot at the IBF featherweight title, but instead got a call to fight for the WBC's interim title a year later, and disappointed with a lackluster defeat to opponent Humberto Soto, and did not even benefit when Soto was penalized two points for blows behind the head.
After that fight, Juarez moved up to 130 pounds and lost a couple of decisions to Marco Antonio Barrera, both in WBC title bouts. In the first one, he took it to a split decision, winning on judge Duane Ford's scorecard.. The second time he was beaten clearly. Juarez was aggressive and game against Juan Manuel Marquez in November of 2007, but he did not have the class of the champion, losing by six, eight and 12 points on the three cards. After stopping Jorge Rodrigo Barrios, he got a shot back at 126 pounds against John, and got it in his own backyard (Houston).
This rematch was supposed to take place at the Staples Center on June 27, but John had to pull out of the card because of what was termed “an undisclosed blood disorder.” Juarez turned down substitutes, so neither man has fought since. Now they will appear on the undercard of the Floyd Mayweather-Juan Manuel Marquez matchup in Las Vegas.
The first time these two fought, I though Juarez was worth taking +250 with, and I guess I nearly turned out to be right. Juarez is usually a fighter to bring pressure, and he did here, and at times it really bothered John, who was struggling to maintain distance so he could work from the outside. When he was able to do so, he was the superior man. He also seemed much more active than Juarez, in fact throwing 400 more blows, but without a lot of power, he didn't have a lot to keep Juarez off him. The draw surprised some people, who thought that John had shown more class in finesse in the fight, and of course there was a lot of talk about hometown influence in the judging.
The fight takes place at the Staples Center this time, but there will obviously be a healthy contingent of Mexican-Americans there. Juarez probably benefited from having a run around the track with his Indonesian opponent, but the fact is, he doesn't possess the boxing skills to dominate this guy. In the last fight, he was more aggressive in the 11th, when he appeared to hurt John, and the 12th, when he sensed that he needed the rounds to pull out the fight. I'm looking for John to establish himself a little earlier here, and give Juarez something to think about for the entire fight. He's not going to hurt him, but his footwork is much better and he has more different ways to win.
This is the kind of fighter show should be able to give Juarez some trouble, because you figure it would make him improvise. The first trip to the U.S. was understandably a learning experience, and uncomfortable to boot, since going into Houston put this champion at a big disadvantage. He should be able to shake those cobwebs, and I wonder whether Juarez, who has fought unsuccessfully for a title on five occasions, isn’t one of those guys who will always fall just short.
I'm laying the -250 with Chris John to win by the decision route in the BetUS boxing betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: JOHN TO WIN BY DECISION (-250) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
