Boxing Betting Free Picks
WBC and WBO Middleweight Title Fight - Pavlik vs. Rubio
by Charles Jay
BetUS boxing betting odds:
WBC-WBO Middleweight (160-pound) title
February 21 -- Youngstown, Ohio
KELLY PAVLIK -900
MARCO ANTONIO RUBIO +600
UNDER 8.5 ROUNDS -220
OVER 8.5 ROUNDS +175
Pavlik by Decision or Technical Decision +400
Rubio by Decision or Technical Decision +1500
Draw or Technical Draw +3000
For betting purposes, let's size up the contestants:
PAVLIK (34-1, 30 KO's), the -900 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, had a nice amateur career where he won national titles in both the Golden Gloves and PAL tournaments. He made his pro debut in June of 2000 and started knocking out one opponent after another; each of his first fifteen, in fact. He moved up in level of opposition with a decision over Ross Thompson in November 2004 and a year later he won the NABF title over Fulgencio Zuniga. Subsequent wins over Bronco McKart and Jose Luis Zertuche led to a WBC title eliminator against Edison Miranda, and Pavlik simply came out and took Miranda's heart away right from the start, dominating the Colombian and scoring a seventh-round TKO. That led directly to his shot against middleweight champion Jermain Taylor, and Pavlik was shocked when he was put to the canvas by Taylor in the second round, but then rallied to take advantage of a tiring Taylor and register a seventh-round TKO to capture the crown. An over-the-weight rematch yielded another winning result for Pavlik, this time on a decision. Pavlik has made one defense, an easy third-round stoppage over Gary Lockett, but in his last fight he was thoroughly beaten by Bernard Hopkins. It was a one-sided 12-round decision at light heavyweight that has brought some of his weaknesses to the surface.
RUBIO (43-4-1, 37 KO's), the +600 underdog at BetUS, comes into this title fight with a puncher's chance. Rubio fought all of his early fights in his native Mexico, and didn't actually get to the United States until his 28th pro fight, when he stopped Jeffrey Hill in seven rounds for the WBO Inter-Continental 154-pound title. In September of 2004 he tasted ignominious defeat when he was knocked out in 33 seconds by Kofi Jantuah, but then a string of knockouts got him back into the picture, leading to a split decision loss to Kassim Ouma on May 2006. In February of last year he scored a seventh-round TKO over Jose Luis Zertuche, who was also a victim of Pavlik's. Last time out (October 18), Rubio registered a split decision win over Enrique Ornelas
This fight is one half of what is a unique pay-per-view card coordinated by Top Rank from two different locations. The fight between Miguel Cotto and Michael Jennings will be the first one, coming live from Madison Square Garden and when that is over, Pavlik and Rubio will tangle.
Rubio got here by winning a split decision over Enrique Ornelas on the undercard of the Hopkins-Pavlik fight in Atlantic City. Rubio came from behind to win it, but was extended quite a bit. Pavlik is here despite simply being horrible in that fight with Hopkins, though the opinion of a lot of my friends in the fight game is that he wasn't that good a fighter to begin with. Hopkins beat him every which way, which demonstrated what a seasoned boxer can do against him. Fortunately for Pavlik, his middleweight titles were not on the line.
Forget about any decision win on the part of Rubio. Not only is that not his style, but it's simply not something that is going to happen in Pavlik's hometown. The Ohio commission is not a very sophisticated one, and they are going to be too thrilled to have title fights within their jurisdiction not to afford Pavlik an edge here or there.
Pavlik is the better overall fighter here, but you must understand that Rubio is a very big puncher, and against someone whose chin has to be in question, could end this fight, or at least turn the tide, with a single shot. Even in losses like the one to Ouma, he was able to floor his opponent.
With that in mind, you might want to give the underdog a chance. Pavlik is known as a tall middleweight, at 6'2-1/2", but Rubio only gives up an inch in height. That could count for something. For Pavlik, it means that he doesn't have to punch down at an opponent, and inasmuch as I consider him to be more puncher than boxer, this is going to put him into the kind of fight he wants.
I see a slugfest that could end pretty early, and that is why in my bigger play I would go UNDER the 8.5 rounds at -220, as it is posted in the BetUS boxing betting odds. But I'll throw a bit down on Rubio, because he has the power to place this fight into the category of "anything can happen."
JAY'S PLAYS: UNDER 8.5 ROUNDS (-220) *** and RUBIO TO WIN (+600) *
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
(Charles Jay is a former manager, matchmaker and color commentator in professional boxing. He currently pulls no punches in the BetUS Locker Room)
