Boxing Betting Free Picks
WBC-WBO Middleweight Title Fight - Kelly Pavlik vs. Miguel Espino
by Charles Jay
How much of a workout will this be?
BetUS boxing betting odds:
WBC-WBO Middleweight (160-pound) title
Kelly Pavlik -1400
Miguel Angel Espino +700
December 19 -- Youngstown, OH
Under 7.5 Rounds -160
Over 7.5 Rounds +130
For betting purposes, let's size up the contestants:
PAVLIK (35-1, 31 KO's), the -1400 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, won national Golden Gloves and PAL championships, winning 89 times in 98 non-paid bouts. He debuted as a professional back in June of 2000 and stopped each of his first fourteen opponents inside the distance.
Among those wins was a second-round TKO of Grady Brewer, who would go on to win the NBC reality show "The Contender." Kelly Pavlik was relatively well-protected, though; he didn't make a serious move up in level of competition until he faced Ross Thompson in November 2004 (winning an eight-round decision). In October of 2005, won the NABF title over Fulgencio Zuniga. Subsequent wins over Bronco McKart and Jose Luis Zertuche led to a fight with Edison Miranda, which was billed as a "WBC title eliminator." In that fight he dominated, taking it to a bewildered Miranda right from the start and finishing things in seven rounds in what was an eye-opening performance.
Four months later he took his undefeated record into a bout with WBC/WBO middleweight champion Jermain Taylor, and was almost taken out before he started, as Taylor knocked him down in the second round. Pavlik recovered and took advantage of Taylor's lack of stamina, stopping him in the seventh round to win the title.
They had a non-title rematch, where Pavlik won rather comfortably on decision. However, Bernard Hopkins, who had lost twice to Taylor, had the ability to exploit Pavlik's weaknesses, and did so, winning a one-sided 12-round decision that had a lot of people asking questions of the middleweight champion. Last time out Pavlik won every round before scoring a stoppage of Marco Antonio Rubio before the tenth stanza.
ESPINO (20-2, 9 KO's), the +700 underdog at BetUS, brings a nice amateur background to the table in this fight with Kelly Pavlik. Espino was a winner in the U.S. Junior Olympics as a youngster, as well as the 1998 U.S. Championships, and won a bronze medal at the Goodwill Games.
He turned pro in August of 2005 with a first-round TKO of Teddy Rooker. Miguel Angel Espino won his first eight fights before sustaining a draw against Carl Cockerham. He has lost twice, and they were in consecutive fights - dropping a ten-round majority decision to then-undefeated Daniel Edouard in October 2003, then losing on a five-round decision to Peter Manfredo as part of the NBC reality series "The Contender." One of his bigger career wins came in April of 2007, beating Sergei Stepkin on decision and winning something called the WBC Caribbean Boxing Federation title. He's really only tested himself once since then, stopping Alejandro Garcia on March 21. In that fight he sent Garcia to the canvas twice, with his opponent retiring due to a hand injury.
This fight is seen as nothing more than a stepping stone to some other kind of fight for Pavlik, whether it is in the middleweight or super middleweight divisions. Of course, at 168 pounds most of the top guys are occupied by the Super Six, so Lucien Bute's name has been mentioned.
Things couldn't be friendlier for Pavlik as he is once again fighting in his hometown of Youngstown, where he had his last fight against Marco Antonio Rubio but has fought only a few times in his career. Certainly matchmakers feel they have found an opponent that is friendly. Espino, though the possessor of a good record, has faced nothing even remotely like the challenge he's going to encounter on Saturday.
Pavlik was supposed to defend his title in October against Paul Williams, but as anyone who has watched Williams knows, he is a troublesome foe. So troublesome, in fact, that it wasn't at all surprising that Pavlik came up with a couple of injuries to pull out of the fight as it was first scheduled, then re-scheduled.
Finally, Williams lost patience and made a date with Sergio Martinez, which as we saw, turned out to be a heck of a fight. When that happens, and the fighter who pulled out (in this case, Pavlik) schedules a different opponent, you know the guy is going to be "right."
Top Rank's people, who know what they're doing, have inserted Espino, who represents no threat.
My understanding is that ticket sales are not brisk in working-class Youngstown, a by-product of the economy and the holiday season upcoming. I know that Pavlik would like to save this venue for something in the future, so I don't know if he really wants to leave his hometown fans going home unhappy.
That might mean a spectacular knockout, as opposed to a fight that starts to look ridiculous as he's carrying the guy. From a "marketability" standpoint, it might make more sense not to LOOK like he's having trouble taking an opponent out.
Certainly Pavlik will beat the untested opponent. That's a given. But it's no fun at -1400. So I am going to favor the round total here, moving UNDER the 8.5 rounds as it is posted at -160 in the BetUS professional boxing lines.
JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 7.5 ROUNDS (-160) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
