Boxing Betting Free Picks
Welterweight Super Fight - Mayweather vs. Marquez
by Charles Jay
BetUS Boxing Betting Odds
Welterweights - 12 Rounds
September 19 - Las Vegas
- FLOYD MAYWEATHER JR. -450
- JUAN MANUEL MARQUEZ +325
- OVER 11.5 ROUNDS -150
- UNDER 11.5 ROUNDS +120
For betting purposes, let's take a look at the contestants:
MAYWEATHER (39-0, 25 KO's), the -450 favorite at BetUS, is now making his return to the ring after a hiatus of 21 months, and ultimately it looks like he is aiming for a fight against Manny Pacquiao. He was a part of the 1996 Olympic team, and zipped through all his fights before beating Genaro Hernandez for the WBC 130-pound title in October of 1998. Floyd made eight defenses of that title, including a dominant performance against Diego Corrales, before moving up to 135 and having a rough fight against Jose Luis Castillo in winning the WBC lightweight title.
Mayweather was almost scary in the way he dismantled Arturo Gatti for the WBC 140-lb. title in June 2005, and continued to move up, going to welterweight to beat Zab Judah for the IBF crown in April of '06. After beating Carlos Baldomir rather easily, he moved up to the junior middleweight level for his biggest career fight, when he faced Oscar De La Hoya. In a fight where he clearly had a tactical advantage but was giving up a lot of size, he out boxed De La Hoya to earn the decision. It wasn’t unanimous however, as one of the judges gave his scorecard to De La Hoya. Mayweather last fought in December of 2007, as he dominated Ricky Hatton before stopping him in the tenth round.
MARQUEZ (50-4-1, 37 KO's), the +325 underdog in the BetUS boxing betting odds, actually lost the first fight of his career. What followed was six years without a loss before losing a decision to Freddie Norwood in September of '99 with the WBA featherweight title on the line. Marquez won the WBA and IBF world titles in November of 2003 with technical decision over Derrick Gainer, then fought to a disputed draw with Manny Pacquiao, where he got back into the fight after getting knocked down three times in the first round. In March of 2004 he traveled to Indonesia and lost a decision to Chris John by a considerable margin that was disputed somewhat. Undaunted, he came back in August of that year to beat Terdsak Jandaeng to win the vacant WBO featherweight crown. Marquez then beat Marco Antonio Barrera to win the WBC championship at 130 pounds.
In the rematch with Pacquiao, he go beat on a split decision, with the deciding judge voting for Pacquiao by one point. Marquez then made the quick switch up to lightweight and stopped Joel Casamayor in eleven rounds. His last fight was a spirited affair, as he had a very rough ride against Juan Diaz, trailing on one of the cards and even on another before stopping him in the ninth round.
This fight will be contested at a maximum weight of 144 pounds, which is to Mayweather's advantage to begin with. With the way the weigh-ins are conducted these days, Mayweather will also have a chance to get closer to where he wants to be, and there is really only so far that Marquez, who was stretching it at 135 pounds, can go. The guy is only about a year and a half removed from fighting at 130, and in his fights at 135 he has beaten Casamayor, who was himself a natural 130-pounder, and had more trouble than he should have had with Juan Diaz.
There is no doubt about the technical proficiency of Marquez, but technical proficiency doesn't mean a lot when you have a difficult time catching up to your target. Marquez is not only moving up in weight, but he is also at a speed disadvantage, and I can say that confidently about Mayweather, no matter how long he has taken off.
Of course, with Mayweather we're taking a leap of faith, because we don't really know for certain how much sharpness he's going to have after being idle for a while. I don't see him as the type who would endeavor to come back out of pure vanity; in fact, I would consider him someone who would stay retired out of vanity, but I could always be wrong.
I know that Mayweather has sometimes had the tendency to be lazy, and that he doesn't always dance his way out of trouble. He has, it seems, almost scripted it that way in the past, before slowly, incrementally taking the edge away and building on it. Marquez is aggressive enough and smart enough that he can crowd Mayweather, IF Floyd lets him do it.
The flip side is that if Floyd DOESN'T want him to do it, it isn't going to happen. We talk about Marquez's technical proficiency, but there is no one in the world who knows more tricks; who does more subtle things to take advantage of his opponent, than Floyd Mayweather.
Marquez is going to be beaten to the punch a lot, and even though he could be in Floyd's face throughout, if he is coming forward he can't avoid getting nailed. Not that Mayweather is a tremendous puncher, but he is a sharp puncher, and while I'm not saying he is going to overwhelm and destroy Marquez the way he did it to Arturo Gatti, you're going to see a difference in speed manifest itself.
I'm looking for Mayweather, the -450 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, winning a clear decision, provided he has not "gotten old" during his hiatus. However, we can get a better price on the fight going the distance, and that is the way we will go here.
JAY'S PLAY: OVER 11.5 ROUNDS (-150) ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
