in Golf Props
Winning the Green Jacket - Odds on the Masters
Tee-off: 4/9/2009
The Tiger Woods, the world’s best golfer, is ready to show fans exactly how good he really is. Or, is he?
Tiger may still be feeling the effects of the knee surgery that kept him out for most of the year. Even though he was brilliant at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the questions still remains, is Tiger as good as he was before the injury?
Bettors seem to think so as Tiger has been established as the +175 favorite to win the Masters.
Of course, this being the Masters it makes sense to choose a golfer with odds but not to go for the long shot just because he’s a long shot. We need value in our choice.
Let’s analyze my top four picks, and two long shots, to win the 2009 Masters.
Top Pick: Phil Mickelson
BetUS Odds: +800
Analysis: Sure, Lefty didn’t make the cut at the Shell Houston Open, but does that surprise anybody who follows golf? After all, this is Phil Mickelson we’re talking about! At times, Lefty is downright horrible. No, make that terrible, but when Phil is on, there isn’t a better golfer in the world including Mr. Tiger Woods. Why do I like Phil Mickelson to win his third green jacket? Because he’s playing extremely well. Out of 7 events this year, Mickelson has made the cut in 5 of them, finished in the top 10 three times and won 2. That’s pretty darn good. Mickelson was horrible in the Shell this past weekend, but he’s won the Masters after the course was lengthened in 2006 and he finished 5th in 2008. Tiger is his only competition if he doesn’t get himself out of his game mentally. Mickelson should be ready to roll after getting his “bad shots” out of his system in the Shell.
Second Pick: Padraig Harrington
BetUS odds: +1500
Analysis: Tiger warned Hootie and the rest of the Masters’ board that if they lengthened the course that it would hurt short game players. Well, Tiger’s actually right. Luckily for Padraig Harrington, he is not a short game player. Harrington finished 7th in 2007 in the Masters and tied 5th in 2008. Last year’s British Open and PGA Championship winner should be ready to put in a great Masters’ run and the odds are spectacular. I love Padraig in this tournament and it was difficult for me deciding between Harrington and Mickelson. If Padraig wins the Masters this weekend, don’t say I didn’t tell you so.
Third Pick: Paul Casey
BetUS odds: +2500
Analysis: I just checked the futurebook odds on the 2009 Masters yesterday and Casey was going off at +3500. See what happens when you win a tournament on the PGA Tour? Casey just notched the Shell Houston win which means he’s hot. There’s no knocking his Masters’ form the past two years as Casey has finished tied for 10th and 11th in 2008 and 2009. Paul Casey could be considered a long shot at the odds of +2500 but I’m putting him in my top three to win betting interests because I’ve got the feeling that this young, tough golfer, is going to solidify himself as a top five guy very soon. It could be in the 2009 Masters.
Fourth Pick: Tiger Woods
BetUS odds: +180
Analysis: Tiger is the chalk for a reason. Since 2005, Tiger has finished 1st, 3rd, 2nd and 2nd. If we could bet trifectas and exactas in golf, Woods would be an easy “key” golfer, but we can’t which is why Tiger just isn’t a logical bet in the 2009 Masters. There are a lot of questions regarding Woods going into the first Major of the year. First, is the knee fully healed? Woods looked good in his Arnold Palmer victory but was it Tiger being gritty again or is he really ready to walk the grueling Masters’ course? Second, is Tiger ready to take on Mickelson? Tiger won the Arnold Palmer but Mickelson skipped that tournament. We wonder if Tiger is ready to battle him. Third, can Woods win at Augusta after the lengthening of the course? The bottom line is that even though Tiger has been phenomenal in the Masters lately, he hasn’t won since the course was lengthened in 2006. Add it all up and Tiger is a tough guy to bet on at +180.
Best Long Shots
Tim Clark +9000 - - 90 to 1 on the 2006 runner-up in the Masters are odds that gamblers should think twice about passing up. Clark is in good enough form to be considered for a wager at those odds. Clark was also the second round co-leader in 2007 before finishing in 13th place. Clark didn’t make the cut in 2008, but that can be forgiven because if he returns to his 2006 form, then the +9000 is going to be awesome.
Stewart Cink +6500 - - Cink finished 3rd in the Masters in 2008. So far in 2009, he’s been pretty good in making 6 out of 7 cuts and finishing in the top 10 once. As far as long shots go, Cink should be considered for a wager because the odds are good and he obviously likes it out there at Augusta. I’m willing to put a few bucks on Cink at odds that cannot be passed up.
