NCAA Tournament Time - This Year's Upset Picks
by Charles Jay
THE NCAA'S? SURPRISE, SURPRISE!
It is time for the NCAA Tournament to start, and it simply wouldn't be March Madness without surprises. More often than not they come from out of the blue, but sometimes they come from the places you suspect, if you've done your homework.
Who's going to pull off the mild surprises, or maybe the shockers, in this year's Big Dance? (click here for your printable March Madness bracket)
One of those surprises could come from Pittsburgh in overtime after overcoming a 19-point second half deficit.
Maynor is back with VCU in the Big Dance, and he is accompanied not just by Sanders but also guard Jose Rodriguez, who shoots 41% from beyond the arc. The coach is Anthony Grant, a former assistant for national champion BetUS NCAA tournament betting odds.
Another team I have followed since last year is WAKE FOREST (+500 to win the Midwest region at BetUS), which was ranked #1 in the country at one point during the year but is also a team whose three best players (James Johnson, Jeff Teague and Al-Farouq Aminu) are making their first-ever appearance in the NCAA Tournament. Grabbing 7.5 points at BetUS may not be a bad idea.
I'm not so sure it would be such a shocker to see WESTERN KENTUCKY, getting 4.5 points against Illinois in the opening round (and +165 on the money line) win the game outright against the Fighting Illini, but this team deserves mention because of the way it finished the season, with 11 wins in the last dozen games, including the Sun Belt tournament championship. The Hilltoppers, if you recall, went to the Sweet 16 last year, and even though coach Darrin Horn departed, along with first-round NBA draft choice Courtney Lee, they did manage to bring back some players off that club, including the starting backcourt of A.J. Slaughter and Orlando Mendez-Valdez, who are averaging almost 30 points between them, and Jeremy Evans, one of last year's starters, who shoots 63% and does a lot of things well. Remember a couple of things: (a) that Chester Frazier, the Illinois point guard who has been sitting out with a broken hand, will play limited minutes if he's even able to play at all, and (b) that this Western Kentucky team was good enough to score a double-digit, early-season win over Louisville, which it held to just 27% shooting.
Finally, a real interesting note about a team that is in its FIRST year of eligibility for post-season Division I play. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (+15000 to win the Midwest region at BetUS) went 16-2 in the Summit League, almost beat USC, and displayed a lot of poise and experience that could take it beyond "glad-to-be-here" status. Ben Woodside and Brett Winkelman are one of the nation's top 1-2 scoring duos (combining for 41.5 ppg), and two other starters - Mike Nelson and Lucas Moorman - are seniors as well. This team does fundamental things well; they shoot for a high percentage (49.2%) and take care of the ball (11.3 turnovers/game). They also hit more than their share of threes.
Homer Drew, who knows something about pulling upsets, having taken his Valparaiso team through two rounds of the tournament eleven years ago, makes a good point about why seemingly weaker are able to beat the odds on this big stage. "When we went to the Sweet 16, we had five seniors," he said. "Experience can offset talent. That's why you're seeing so many mid-majors do well. Experience counteracts talent at other schools."
Keep that in mind as you ponder North Dakota State getting ten points from KANSAS (+700 to win the Midwest region in BetUS odds), which has blue-chip talent but no fewer than five freshmen in the rotation, as this team lost the lion's share of its personnel from last year's championship team.
Then prepare to be surprised.
Of course, having read this, maybe you won't be.
