South Region Bracket Power Poll - Sun Devils are Dangerous
by Mike Rose
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1) Arizona State Sun Devils (18-11 ATS, 24-9 SU, +1500 to win South Region) Considering that North Carolina isn’t in ASU’s half of the Southern bracket, 16-1 may be a tremendous price on a team with a ton of talent. USC, Washington, and Washington State combined to hand the Sun Devils six of their nine losses. Marks of 15-8 ATS and 21-3 SU against the rest of the schedule seems a lot more impressive. Still, the oddsmakers aren’t buying what HC Herb Sendek is selling, as the Devils are short favorites against an A-10 team that wasn’t even on the tourney radar until a few weeks ago.
Up Next: Temple (-4.5)
2) Temple Owls (18-11 ATS, 22-11 SU, +9000 to win South Region) The opening round game between Temple and Arizona State may be the trickiest of all to handicap. Both teams were sparkling ATS this season, and both seem to provide dangerous match-ups to the other on the court. It’s hard to ignore the fact that the Owls have gone 14-6-1 ATS since the start of ’09 though.
Up Next: Arizona State (+4.5)
3) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (16-12-1 ATS, 24-8 SU, +10000 to win South Region) The Hilltoppers were easily the best sports betting team in the Sun Belt this year, and closed out the regular season with covers in nine of their L/11 games. A 68-54 win over Louisville on a neutral court paired with some recent struggles by the Illini are making a lot of people wonder whether WKU is a legitimate upset threat out of the #12 hole this year.
Up Next: Illinois (+4.5)
4) Butler Bulldogs (16-12-1 ATS, 26-5 SU, +6000 to win South Region) Did Butler’s rich tournament history and sparkling 26-5 record get shafted by the Selection Committee? Though many think so, the oddsmakers are siding with the Committee. They made the Bulldogs 2.5-point underdogs to a questionable LSU squad, completely disregarding the fact that they were once upon a time 22-2 SU and 14-7-1 ATS. This wouldn’t be the first tournament in which sports bettors said, “The Butler did it.”
Up Next: LSU (+2.5)
5) Syracuse Orange (17-14 ATS, 26-9 SU, +900 to win South Region) With as hot as the Orange have been lately, many people think that they could be the team to slip past Carolina and get to the Final Four. History will tell you that teams that played a lot of basketball the week before the NCAA Tournament in these power conferences don’t do so hot when all of the marbles are really on the line; blowing an eight-point halftime lead in the Big East final against Louisville may be an indicator that Syracuse is running on empty.
Up Next: Stephen F. Austin (-12)
6) Michigan Wolverines (15-11 ATS, 20-13 SU, +9000 to win South Region) The Big Blue faithful sat on pins and needles until the very end of the NCAA Selection show on Sunday, but were rewarded with a spot in the dance. Michigan likely got in on the strength of wins in four of its L/6 games (5-1 ATS), but went just 1-2 SU and ATS against teams from the ACC this season.
Up Next: Clemson (+5)
7) Akron Zips (16-13-1 ATS, 23-12 SU, +15000 to win South Region) The Zips are a relatively unknown commodity in this tournament. They were beaten by both Pittsburgh and Dayton earlier this year, but there really isn’t a team like Gonzaga anywhere on their schedule. History will say that 12.5-points are a ton for a four seed to be giving a 13. History also says that the Bulldogs are a ridiculously tough team to bounce. Without its best game to kick off the tourney, Akron’s MAC championship will mean zip to the Zags.
Up Next: Gonzaga (+12.5)
8) Illinois Fighting Illini (15-12-1 ATS, 24-9 SU, +2800 to win South Region) It’s hard to back a club that went just 1-3 SU and ATS down the stretch and only scored 33 points in a home game against a team that didn’t end up making the NCAA Tournament. That’s why the Illini, a #5 seed, find themselves as a short favorite against a very trendy, upset minded bunch of Hilltoppers. WKU averages almost 72 points per game. The last time Illinois reached that plateau was back on January 10th.
Up Next: Western Kentucky (-4)
9) Gonzaga Bulldogs (15-13 ATS, 26-5 SU, +650 to win South Region) Not many teams in the country can say that they rank in the Top-50 both offensively and defensively, but that’s where Gonzaga finds itself (#14 in points per game, #36 in points allowed). The Zags bolted through the WCC Tournament like gang busters, winning their two games by an average of 30 points per game. Maryland, Oklahoma State, and Tennessee (twice) all fell victim to Gonzaga in the regular season, so Akron shouldn’t be much of a struggle.
Up Next: Akron (-12.5)
10) LSU Tigers (13-12 ATS, 26-7 SU, +6000 to win South Region) It’s not often that the regular season champs of the SEC can be found on the #8 line, but let’s face the facts… Did LSU really deserve any better? The Tigers went 24-2 SU against non-tournament teams this year and just 2-5 SU against those that did make the field. Both wins came against fellow SEC foes, and Mississippi State, much like last year’s Georgia team, is a far cry from being good enough to compete with the big boys on the dance floor.
Up Next: Butler (-2.5)
11) Oklahoma Sooners (13-13-1 ATS, 27-5 SU, +500 to win South Region) There are plenty of reasons to doubt this OU squad heading into March Madness. The Sooners have gone just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their L/6 games, and though some of those contests were without superstar F Blake Griffin, the fact that he played in their final two defeats likely cost them a #1 seed that looked like a dead lock three weeks ago. Don’t expect a hassle from Morgan State, but things will get a lot tougher very, very quickly from here.
Up Next: Morgan State (-16.5)
12) Clemson Tigers (12-13-1 ATS, 23-8 SU, +2000 to win South Region) There’s got to be plenty of cause for concern for Clemson bettors after their Tigers got run off the court by the worst team in the ACC in the opening round of the ACC Tourney in Atlanta. Clemson has only covered one spread since February 22nd (1-4 ATS), but did post a huge 76-74 win in the ACC/Big Ten challenge in Champaign earlier this year.
Up Next: Michigan (-5)
13) Morgan State Bears (3-2 ATS, 23-11 SU, +25000 to win South Region) Unlike so many of the other teams from small conferences, Morgan State at least has some quality games to analyze heading into the dance. It’s really a case of the good, the bad, and the ugly for the Bears. Good: 66-65 win at Maryland. Bad: 81-67 loss at Washington. Ugly: 66-37 loss vs. Utah. None of those teams are as good as Oklahoma is, and without a Herculean effort, the Bears probably won’t be competitive.
Up Next: Oklahoma (+16.5)
14) Radford Highlanders (1-0 ATS, 21-11 SU, +30000 to win South Region) Radford opened up as four-touchdown underdogs against the mighty Tar Heels, but have since been bet down to +26.5. Putting up an average of 92.3 points per game in their final four games of the season may make one think that the Highlanders can at least run with UNC, but only scoring 61 against Wake Forest and 54 against West Virginia earlier this season should quell those thoughts.
Up Next: North Carolina (+26.5)
15) North Carolina Tar Heels (11-19 ATS, 28-4 SU, -115 to win South Region) Yeah, the Tar Heels may be the best team in the country, and yeah they’re the only team that is an odds-on favorite to reach the Final Four, but boy have they been a nightmare for sports betting aficionados! An 11-19 ATS mark shows how inflated UNC’s lines have been this season, and though it’s hard picturing anyone knocking it out of this tournament early, it could provide a lot of underdog bettors with a lot of easy cash.
Up Next: Radford (-26.5)
16) Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (1-0 ATS, 23-7 SU, +20000 to win South Region) SFA is another one of these teams that just didn’t play many tournament teams this year, thus is a very difficult read to make against the big boys. A win against North Dakota State is probably the best victory on the resume, as a 0-3 record against teams from the power conferences just isn’t appealing. Two of the three beat the Lumberjacks by more than this 12-point spread, but none of the three are nearly as good as this ‘Cuse team.
Up Next: Syracuse (+12)
