Top NBA Draft Picks In March Madness
by Tim Furious
The entire college basketball betting season has been about the insane production of John Wall, whose Kentucky Wildcats will enter March Madness as one of the top teams in the country. Wall is projected as the undeniable top, overall pick in the upcoming NBA Draft and he will try to do what many top picks before him have failed to do by winning the NCAA basketball title. The frenzy is upon us, and just because Kentucky has the best player in the country, it does not mean that March will be a cake walk. If you need proof, I’ve got some pudding for you right here.
Below is a breakdown of the top pick in the past ten NBA Drafts, and the results from the championship game in March Madness. Also noted is the top college basketball player taken in each draft if the first pick is from high school or Europe.
2009 Draft – Blake Griffin (Oklahoma Sooners)
Winner – UNC Tar Heels over Michigan State
Griffin’s Sooners were actually bounced by one of the greatest college players in history, the thirteenth overall pick in the draft, Tyler Hansbrough of the UNC Tar Heels who would go on to win the title. While Hansbrough is perhaps one of the most decorated college basketball players of all time, NBA scouts were skeptical about his athletic talents at the pro level.
Neither Griffin nor Hansbrough have played enough in the NBA to grade them out completely, but last year there was supposedly no better player than Griffin until Hansbrough tooled him in the tournament. Is there another point-guard out there ready to show the great John Wall a quick exit in the tournament?
2008 Draft – Derrick Rose (Memphis Tigers)
Winner – Kansas Jayhawks over Memphis Tigers
Speaking of point guards, Rose is blossoming as an NBA talent and is regarded as one of the premier point men in the league. He may very well be joined by Wall in the 2010-11 NBA season, but neither was able to push their team over the top. Rose’s Memphis Tigers lost as favorites to the Jayhawks thanks to Mario Chalmers, a late first round selection by the Miami Heat.
2007 Draft – Greg Oden (Ohio State Buckeyes)
Winner – Florida Gators over Ohio State
The biggest debate entering the 2007 Draft was whether the Blazers should take an MJ-type player in Kevin Durant, or the highest rated center scouted in draft history. As good as Oden and Durant were as freshman, neither could overcome the awesome power of the Florida Gators. Though Oden was able to lead Ohio State to the championship game, injuries were slowing him down in the worst way. The Buckeyes lost to the returning powerhouse from Florida. Al Horford went third in this draft, with teammates Corey Brewer (7th) and Joakim Noah (9th).
2006 Draft – Andrea Bargnani (Italy)
Winner – Florida Gators over UCLA
This is a tricky year because the highest rated player in the draft was actually Joakim Noah, who had come off a breakout, championship run with the Gators. The nucleus in Florida decided to stay for one more season together, making Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge and Adam Morrison the top three picks in the draft. Needless to say, the best college player amongst them was Morrison whose career has all but ended thanks to a horrific knee injury.
2005 Draft – Andrew Bogut (Utah)
Winner – UNC Tar Heels over Illinois
Marvin Williams (2nd) and Raymond Felton (5th) were amongst the best players in the country, and certainly they boasted the best team. But Deron Williams and Chris Paul were both the highest rated players entering the draft. Four players from UNC’s championship team went in the first round. Bogut getting taken first overall was more out of necessity since the Bucks needed a big man in a big way.
2004 – Dwight Howard (H.S.)
Winner – UConn Huskies over Georgia Tech
Though Howard was taken first overall, at the time it wasn’t without severe criticism. Most experts thought that Emeka Okafor was a far more mature and experienced player, with as great an upside as the unproven Howard. Everyone ended up being wrong about the debate, except for the cagey Magic. Okafor and Ben Gordon, both from UConn, were the first two college players taken in the draft at second and third respectively.
2003 Draft – LeBron James (H.S.)
Winner- Syracuse Orangemen over Kansas
Carmelo Anthony was the highest rated college player taken in this draft. At third overall, Anthony’s NCAA title and Most Outstanding Player Award from the tournament weren’t enough to push him over the unreal hype of LeBron, or the unjustified ballyhoo around Darko Milicic.
2002 Draft – Yao Ming (China)
Winner – Maryland Terrapins over Indiana
This was a screwy year for college and the pros. Jared Jeffries of Indiana (11th overall) and Chris Wilcox of the champion Terrapins (8th overall) were the highest players taken from the title game. Jay Williams was by far the highest rated player in the draft, and a tragic motorcycle accident completely derailed his career. Still, in college, Williams failed to take Duke to the championship game in his final year.
2001 Draft – Kwame Brown (H.S.)
Winner – Duke Blue Devils over Arizona
Shane Battier was perhaps the best player at the college level, but scouts seriously doubted his athletic ability. That’s why he fell all the way to sixth, behind three high schoolers (Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry), a European named Pau Gasol and one of the more athletic talents in the country in Jason Richardson. Oddly enough, the best college product from this draft was the tenth overall pick, a sharpshooter named Joe Johnson from Arkansas.
2000 Draft – Kenyon Martin (Cincinnati)
Winner – Michigan State over Florida
Martin broke his leg before the tournament, ending Cincinnati’s hopes of a national title but that didn’t stop him from becoming the most touted player entering the first draft of the new millennium. Mateen Cleaves and Morris Peterson of the championship winning Spartans both fell out of the lottery.
1999 Draft – Elton Brand (Duke)
Winner – UConn Huskies over Duke
Brand and Duke lost in the championship game against Rip Hamilton (7th overall) and the Connecticut Huskies. This is wildly regarded as one of the best drafts in NBA history, boasting nine NBA All-Stars. Elton Brand was a force of nature in college, and has since become a bad luck charm for the Clippers and Sixers.
FIRST OVERALL PICKS WITH NATIONAL TITLES = 0-for-10
Only in 2003 and 2004 did Okafor and Melo emerge as the best college basketball players in the country to also win national titles, and oddly enough neither of them were first overall draft picks. In the past 10 years of March Madness betting, the projected top pick in the draft has won the college basketball title just once (Okafor, 2004). Even then, Okafor wasn’t taken first overall which is an outright certainty for Wall in this upcoming draft.
The metrics for March Madness are infuriatingly inaccurate (save for #1 vs. #16 in the first round), but having the best player in the country is not a guarantee that you’ll win the tournament. I believe in crap like this, which is one reason I’m not laying any money down on Kentucky to take the title when the confetti falls at the end of March Madness betting.
