Big East vs. ACC in the Sweet 16 - (3) Villanova vs. (2) Duke
by Charles Jay
BetUS NCAA Basketball Betting Odds: DUKE -2.5, Total 148
Here are some of the NCAA basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* VILL has won five of its last six games SU
* VILL has covered one of its last four games
* VILL has played four of its last five games OVER the total
* DUKE has won ten of its last 11 games SU
* DUKE has covered six of its last ten games
* DUKE has played nine of its last 14 games OVER the total
Duke; that is, when they have their best offensive lineup on the floor.
The problem is that the lineup that is best for them to score with is not one you'd want to trust them to defend with. Villanova is a team that is very balanced. Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher are an excellent, and sometimes overlooked backcourt. Corey Stokes, also a guard, hits 43% from three-point range. Jay Wright remarked earlier in the season that the difference between this Wildcat team and others he's had is that this one has useful size. He's right (pardon the pun) and they do. Dante Cunningham has developed into one of the more efficient inside players in the Big East, averaging 16.3 points and shooting 53%. Does Duke have someone who can stop him? If they don't, or if they think 7'1" Brian Zoubek is going to be the guy who gets the job done, this is going to be a long night.
Villanova is a program that I truly believe has become lost in the shuffle among all the Big East superpowers. Yet they are a Top 10-caliber squad without a lot of weaknesses. They defend, they rebound, they take care of the ball, and they score inside or outside. I think they're a little too varied for this Duke team that has gotten by without muscle all year. Plus, when you talk about Duke, there is always the possibility of getting some "public value." We're taking the points here with Villanova, the 2.5-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA Tournament sports betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: VILLANOVA +2.5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
(click here for your printable March Madness bracket)
