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Cinderella's last Dance - (1) Louisville vs. (9) Sienna

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The Midwest Regional second-round date is set for Sunday between the 9th seeded Sienna Saints and the top ranked Louisville Cardinals. BetUS has set the total at 141 and has Louisville as an 11 ½ point favorite.

Sienna has played in some seriously entertaining games in March Madness tournaments and their double OT win over Ohio State was no exception. No one can say that they have been lucky, it has been a tough season schedule where they take their lumps and grow from experience and bring it all together when it matters most, March Madness.

The competitive early season losses actually helped to build team confidence and resolve needed to win a game like Sunday’s showdown with top ranked Louisville.

The Cardinals had their ups and downs this season as well but Pitino’s team is looking unstoppable right now and has a legitimate shot at going all the way. The keys to winning this game are getting out to a fast start so Sienna doesn’t keep the momentum from their last game going and not letting off the throttle. Cinderella teams feed off momentum and if they get rolling, they can be dangerous but if they can't get it going early, they fold like a cheap tent.

Here is a look at some trends for both teams.

·  Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
·  Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
·  Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
·  Over is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games as an underdog.
·  Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 non-conference games.
·  Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. Big East.
· Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.

 

First off, 141 is a lot of points and I think that the Louisville press should slow down the Saints all night. If Sienna starts forcing the issue it could result in a high number of turnovers and some quick baskets for the Cards. Despite the trends pointing to the over, Sienna's fairytale ends Sunday in a lopsided Louisville win 75-62.

The Pick: Louisville (-11) and Under 141