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East Bracket Opening Round - No. 3 Villanova vs. No. 14 American

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The American Eagles (24-7 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U) and the NCAA Championship Tournament.

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American has won a whopping 13 consecutive games coming into this contest and 19 of its last 20, including a convincing 73-57 win over Holy Cross on Friday to win the Patriot League title.

Senior point guard Garrison Carr scored a game-high 24 points and senior forward Brian Gilmore added 18 points to help the Eagles cover the spread as 5-point home favorites while the game played over the 116.5-point O/U total.

Villanova lost to eventual Big East Tournament champion Louisville 69-55 in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament on Friday, failing to cover the spread for BetUS NCAA college basketball sports betting backers as 4.5-point underdogs while the game's 124 combined points played UNDER the posted O/U total of 140 points.

Blossoming senior forward Dante Cunningham led three players in double figure scoring with 14 points, adding nine rebounds in the loss.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NCAAB Free Pick.

  • The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
  • The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Villanova is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
  • Villanova is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
  • The Over is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 Thursday games.
  • The Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games following an SU loss.

  • American +15½ -110
  • Villanova -15½ -110
  • Over 127 -110
  • Under 127 -110

Analysis: Derrick Mercer, American's 5-9 senior point guard is an excellent player who was named the Patriot League player of the year despite being just third on his team in scoring (11.5 ppg) and his backcourt mate, Garrison Carr, is averaging almost 22 points per game in his past six contests.

Still, I fully expect Villanova’s inside-out combo of point guard Scottie Reynolds and big man Dante Cunningham, one of the most improved post players in the country, not to mention the underrated play of reserve guard Corey Fisher, to propel the Wildcats to victory in this contest.

Villanova made it to the Sweet 16 as a No. 12 seed last year and features a veteran group that understands what it takes in the tournament.

Still, I like the Eagles to cover the high spread by the skin of their collective teeth as they manage to keep it close with the stellar play of their backcourt.

I also like the Under just barely as these teams have combined to allow 125.4 points per contest.

NCAAB Free Picks: American +15½ Points/Under 127 Total Points