East Bracket Round 1 - (10) Minnesota vs. (7) Texas
by Mike Rose
#10 Texas Longhorns 7:10 ET
The second session of the first day of the NCAA betting Tournament tips off at 7:10 ET in Greensboro, NC at the Greensboro Coliseum when Head Coach Tubby Smith’s Minnesota Golden Gophers (22-10, 12-14-1 ATS) square off against Head Coach Rick Barnes’ Texas Longhorns (22-11, 11-18-1 ATS). Minnesota picked up the lone win it felt it needed to punch its ticket to the “Big Dance” in the first round of the Big 10 tournament against the Northwestern Wildcats, while Texas bowed out to the Baylor Bears in the semi-final round of the Big 12 Tournament. Neither of these clubs fared well in their 10 true road games (4-6 SU), but both excelled on neutral courts. Minnesota went 2-1 SU & ATS in its three games and Texas went a solid 5-2 SU but a poor 2-4-1 ATS in its seven CBB betting battles.
BetUS Sportsbook oddsmakers currently have the higher seeded Longhorns installed as four-point neutral court favorites with the game ‘total’ set at 126.5. Minnesota went 4-8 SU and ATS when installed as the decided underdog this season, while Texas went 17-8 SU but a bankroll depleting 9-15-1 when tabbed the favorite. That said; the ‘Horns went a perfect 2-0 SU & ATS when it failed to cover three in a row this season.
The Golden Gophers bounce back 2008-09 can be attributed to their excellence on the defensive end of the court. They come into this evening’s game ranked 34th in the country allowing an average of just 61.1 PPG, and limited their opponents to less than 40% from the field (39.8%) good for the country’s 33rd best FG% defense. As a team, the Gophers outrebounded their opponents 30.1-28 good for a +2.1 seasonal rebounding advantage. It was an entirely different story on the offensive end of the court though, as the Gophers rank 195th in PPG (66.5), 141st in FG% (44.2%), and 237th in 3-point % (32.7%). They did however do an admirable job from the charity stripe by converting at a 71.5% clip (#88).
The Longhorns come into this match-up the much more balanced team. Offensively, they rank amongst the country’s top 100 scoring an average of 72.3 PPG (#97), and shot 44.2% from the field (#144). Shockingly, they were very mediocre from beyond the arc converting just 32.1% of all their attempts on the year. Texas boasts the 33rd ranked rebounding advantage after outboarding their opponents 35.7-30 good for a 5.7 rebounding advantage on the year. Their defense allowed a respectable 65+ per game and stifled their opponents from the floor allowing them to shoot a paltry 40.6% from the field good for the 48th best mark in the country.
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This looks to be an ugly grind it out affair evidenced by the fact that BetUS oddsmakers hung a 126.5 for the ‘total.’ That’s the third lowest number posted in a Texas game this season. I’m looking for Texas’ balance to be too much for the Gophers to handle at both ends of the court. Minny will keep this one close for awhile and maybe hold the lead on a couple of occasions, but I just don’t see them being able to see it the whole way through. The 1-2 punch of A.J. Abrams and Dexter Pittman will wear the Gophers down late allowing Texas to advance into the second round with a solid neutral court cover.
Rose’s Recommendation: 3* Texas (-4)
(Grading scale = 1* to 5*)
