East Region Sweet 16 - (4) Xavier vs. (1) Pittsburgh
by Mike Rose
COLLEGE BASKETBALL BETTING – Game Match-up 3/26
Pittsburgh Panthers 7:30 ET
Duke game for the right to represent their region in the Final 4.
(click here for your printable March Madness bracket)
BetUS Sportsbook currently has Pitt lined as seven-point choices, while the ‘total’ sits at 138.5. The Musketeers went 2-1 SU & ATS when installed an underdog this season, and Head Coach Sean Miller’s crew has gone 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS the L/3 years in the NCAA Tournament. The Panthers went 21-3 SU and 14-10 ATS when tabbed the favorite this season, but they’re a very poor 1-4 ATS their L/5 NCAA Tournament games in that role.
Defense is the name of the game for the X-Men. Of late, the equation has been frighteningly simple. Since February 7th, when Xavier gives up more than 60 points, it is 0-4 SU and ATS. In games where it holds the opposition under the 60-point barrier, it is 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS. Only Richmond has managed to reach that coveted 60-point plateau on the Musketeers in their L/8 games, and in that stretch, they’ve held opponents to an average of 57 points per game. They’re 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 against the basketball betting line. Xavier advanced to the Sweet 16 with easy wins over both Portland State (77-59) and Wisconsin (60-49), but it hasn’t faced a test like Pittsburgh since playing Memphis back on November 23rd.
At times, generating offense can be difficult for the Musketeers, as they only rank 100th in the nation in offense (72.1 points per game). Still, they can score from long range like few teams in the country can (40.1% from beyond the arc, 10th in the country), and dominate on the glass (36.0 rebounds per game, 18th in the country). Only forward’s BJ Raymond and Derrek Brown average scoring in double figures for the X-Men, but a total of nine players average at least five points per game.
The biggest test for Xavier is figuring out who is going to body with Pitt’s mammoth F DeJuan Blair. Blair has been a force inside all season, but has been especially dangerous in the tournament. He is averaging 18.5 points and 14.0 rebounds per game in two efforts, up from his 15.6 points and 12.4 rebounds per game in the regular season. While Blair has dominated inside, F Sam Young has been the key outside. Young led the Panthers with 18.8 points per game in the regular season, but went for a ridiculous 32 points and eight boards against Oklahoma State.
Xavier’s advantage typically comes on the glass, but Pitt should be equal to the challenge. The Panthers rank 7th in the nation in rebounds per game (37.1), and average outrebounding opponents by over ten boards a game.
Pitt continues to find ways to win games, but hasn’t covered a spread since March 7th (0-3 ATS). If teams like East Tennessee State and Oklahoma State can find ways to hang with the #1 team in the East, why can’t Xavier? The Musketeers probably won’t advance to the Elite 8, but expect to see them find a way to stick within this touchdown spread.
Rose’s Recommendation: 2* Xavier Musketeers
(Rating Scale: 1* - 5*)
