Madness Picks - (1) North Carolina vs. (8) LSU

NCAA Basketball Sports Betting

North Carolina Tar Heels (29-4 SU, 12-19 ATS)

NCAA Tournament (@ Greensboro, NC)
Saturday, March 21

BetUS NCAA Basketball Sports Betting Odds: NORTH CAROLINA -11, Total 156.5

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• LSU has lost three of its last five games SU
• LSU has played its last four games UNDER the total
• NC has won five of its last six games SU
• NC has covered two of its last nine games
• NC has played its last four games UNDER the total
  
  

LSU knew that its first-round Butler Bulldogs, were going to try and maintain a slower pace and hit enough three’s to tally the winning points. But LSU was able to get things going a little faster and had a hot shooting night, nailing 49% of their shots and staving off a Butler rally. Marcus Thornton exploded for 30 points, hitting 10 of 15 from the field (including a trio of treys), with Chris Johnson blocking four shots for the Tigers, who also came up with eleven steals in the game.

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North Carolina won't mind playing at a higher pace. The Tar Heels were second in the country in scoring, at 90.5 points per game, and didn't disappoint their fans in the opener against Radford. They aired it out to the tune of a 101-58 win, even without Ty Lawson, who is still suffering from a toe injury and was held out of this contest against the 16th seed as a precaution (He'll be back against LSU). Tyler Hansbrough was just 5-for-16, but had 22 points as he shot 12-for-12 from the line. Meanwhile, North Carolina held Radford's big gun, Art Parakhouski, to just three field goals. Bobby Frasor, who took most of Lawson's minutes, had just one turnover. No one was overextended, which is a luxury the Heels had against this first-round opponent, so they should be fresh.

LSU isn't above getting blown out on occasion; the Tigers were beaten by 30 points at Utah earlier in the season, and also lost by double digits against Mississippi State in the SEC tourney. It is not an insignificant factor that North Carolina is playing in this sub-regional only about an hour from its Chapel Hill campus. The SEC did not have a great year, and there are more than a few people who feel LSU was not nearly as good as their lofty record indicated (the NCAA committee included, apparently). However, there are some factors that might aid the Tigers in keeping this game very competitive. For one thing, they have a potent big man in Johnson who can get in Hansbrough's way, and last season's national player of the year will not have a free pass in the lane.

LSU's defensive stalwart, 6'6" Garrett Temple, would seem a perfect blanket for Wayne Ellington, who was the high scorer in Thursday's game, with 25 points. Lawson won’t be 100% with his toe injury, and so his speed might not be as much of a factor. The question of who is going to guard the 6'4" Thornton, a scoring machine, is a good one. There is no doubt that North Carolina had advantages, but remember that they are not the superpower many (including myself) though they were at the season's outlet. We think the points are worth taking here with LSU, the 11-point underdog in the BetUS Sportsbook.

JAY'S PLAY:  LSU +11
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)