March Madness Picks - First Round Battle Pits No. 9 Northern Iowa Agains No. 8 UNLV

The ninth-seeded Northern Iowa Panthers and the UNLV Rebels will stage one of the more compelling March Madness first round matchups when they take to the court at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City for their NCAA Basketball Championship Tournament showdown tonight at 7 PM ET.

Both teams appear to be offering college basketball betting aficionados excellent value coming into tonight’s contest, but only one will walk away victorious and I’ve got the answer as to which team it will be with this expert March Madness betting pick.

Thursday, March 18, 7:10 PM ET
NCAAB Betting Odds: UNLV -1
TV: CBS

Northern Iowa (28-4 SU, 20-11 ATS, 7-21 O/U)
UNLV (25-8 SU, 19-12 ATS, 15-15 O/U)

Northern Iowa 411
Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.

Northern Iowa has won four straight games including its 67-52 rout of Wichita State in the Missouri Valley Conference title game on Sunday. The Panthers got a game-high 28 points from senior guard Kwado Ahelegbe in the win to cover the NCAA basketball odds as a 3-point favorite and move to a perfect 3-0 ATS over the last three games and 5-2 ATS over the last seven games overall.

UNLV 411
Runnin' Rebels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Runnin' Rebels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Runnin' Rebels are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.

UNLV had won six straight games – before getting buzz-sawed in its 55-45 loss to San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference title game on Saturday.

The Runnin’ Rebels failed to cash in for college basketball betting backers as a 4-point favorite to fall to 1-3 ATS over the last four games.

Analysis: The outcome of this contest will be decided on whether or not UNLV can score at least 70 points or not – it’s that simple.

Northern Iowa averages just 63.3 points per game and no player averages more than 7-footer Jordan Eglseder's 12 points per game, but the Pirates ranked second in the nation in defense, allowing just 54.3 points per game.

Northern Iowa allowed just one opponent to top the 70-point plateau this season – and won that contest anyway, 84-76 over Missouri State on Jan. 3.

The Runnin' Rebels average 73.3 points and will need to reach 70 points in this contest as they’ve gone 22-2 when reaching the 70-point plateau while going a disappointing 3-6 when scoring less than 70.

UNLV looked pitiful in scoring just 45 points against San Diego State the last time out. Nevertheless, I’m going to play UNLV to win this game and cover the spread as slight 1-point favorites.

Both teams have recorded stellar, bankroll-boosting ATS records this season, though Northern Iowa has gone 5-1 SU in neutral site games, compared to UNLV’s 2-2 SU mark in neutral court contests.

This game could literally go either way, but I’m banking on the Runnin’ Rebels to put the ball in the basket a few more times than their offensively-challenged counterparts.