March Madness Picks – Upset Special Brewing as No. 10 Missouri Faces No. 2 West Virginia

March Madness basketball is back on center stage today when the 10th-seeded Missouri Tigers try to upset the second-seeded West Virginia Mountaineers when the two teams take to the court at HSBC Arena for their second round NCAA March Madness showdown today at 2:30 PM ET.

Sunday, March 21, 2:40 PM ET
NCAAB Betting Odds: West Virginia -5.5
(O/U) 137.5

Missouri (23-10 SU, 15-12 ATS, 13-12 O/U)
West Virginia (28-6 SU, 14-19 ATS, 14-17 O/U)

Missouri 411
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.

Missouri outscored their opponents in the second half to beat Clemson 86-78 in the first round of the NCAA tournament on Friday. The Tigers got a team-high  20 points from Keith Ramsey and Kim English as they covered the March Madness betting line as 2-point underdogs to snap a four-game ATS losing streak.

West Virginia 411
Mountaineers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games.
Mountaineers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.

West Virginia opened their NCAA tournament with a 77-50 spanking of Morgan State on Friday. The Mountaineers got a team-high 17 points from Kevin Jones en route to covering the college basketball betting odds as a whopping 17-point  favorite to snap a three-game ATS losing streak.

Analysis: I really like the Missouri Tigers to pull off the ‘upset’ in this contest over a West Virginia team that may have a higher ranking but is closer to Missouri’s equal than most college basketball experts may believe.

The Tigers average four points per game more than the Mountaineers this season while allowing just three more points per contest defensively.

Missouri’s pressure defense ranks first in the country in steals (11.1 per game) and  turnovers forced (19.7 per contest) and I believe they will not only cover the college basketball betting line in this matchup, but push the Mountaineers for the outright win.

Lest anyone forget, before the Mountaineers began their current seven-game winning streak, the team had dropped three of its previous five games, including a 73-62 road loss at mediocre UConn on Feb. 22.

Sure, the Mountaineers looked good in beating Morgan State the last time out, but Missouri is a beast of an entirely different nature and I believe their Big 12 battles this season have toughened them up for a contest exactly like this one.

I like the Missouri Tigers to cover the spread in this contest – with the outright ‘upset’ of the Spartans.

NCAAB Expert Picks: Missouri +5.5 Points