March Madness Picks - Upstar Sam Houston Looks To Topple Top Seeded Nicholls State

March Madness will be in full swing when the eighth-seeded Nicholls State Colonels try topple the top-seeded Sam Houston State Bearkats in their first round Southland Conference Tournament matchup that gets underway at the Leonard E. Merrell Center in Katy, Texas tonight at 7 PM ET.

The upstart Colonels have won two consecutive games and four of five to make consecutive postseason appearances for the first time in nine years while the high-scoring Bearkats come into the tournament off a heartbreaking overtime loss that snapped a three-game winning streak.

Wednesday, March 10, 7:00 PM ET
NCAAB Betting Odds: Sam Houston State -10.5

Nicholls St. (11-18 SU, 1-5 ATS, 7-9 Conf.)
Sam Houston St. (22-7 SU, 2-0 ATS, 14-2 Conf.)

Nicholls State 411
Colonels are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
Colonels are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Nicholls State has won two straight and four of five coming into tonight’s contest and pounded Lamar in its 73-61 win on Saturday as junior swingman Anatoly Bose, a first team All-Southland selection, scored a game-high 22 points.

The Colonels also matched up well in the only meeting between the two schools as Nicholls took a hard-fought 75-69 loss on Feb. 10.

Bose averages a stellar 20.4 points per game to rank second in the conference and 23rd in the country. Bose has turned in 20-point performances in 19 of 29 games this season.

Sam Houston State 411
Bearkats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
Bearkats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Sam Houston State won its first 11 Southland Conference games this season but lost two of their last five games including a 101-97 overtime loss to Texas State on Saturday. Freshman forward Gilberto Clavell scored a game-high 35 points in the loss.

The Bearkats own impressive non-conference wins over Oral Roberts (71-64 on Nov. 24), Rider (80-68 on Nov. 25) and Auburn (107-89 on Dec. 20) and also nearly pulled off one of the year's biggest upset with a 102-92 loss at Kentucky on Nov. 19.

Sam Houston ranks first in the league in scoring offense (80.8 points/game), scoring margin (+10.9), assists (20.9 assists/game), assist/turnover ration (1.6), defensive rebounds (25.6 rebounds/game) and three pointers made (9.0 threes/game).

Analysis: I don’t think there’s any doubt that Sam Houston State is going to win this game over the lesser Nicholls State Colonels, but the high double digit point spread could drive bettors to wager on Nicholls State to cover the college basketball point spread.

Unfortunately for the Colonels and their backers, I don’t think Nicholls State will cash in against the clearly superior – and ticked-off – Bearkats, who will want to bounce back from their upset loss the last time out by making an emphatic statement.

Sam Houston state averages just a shade under 15 points per game and allows one less point per contest defensively for a 16-point scoring difference between the two teams – which looks to be just enough to cover the NCAA basketball betting odds in this contest.