USC Trojans (22-12 SU, 17-14 ATS) vs. Michigan State Spartans (26-6 SU, 16-13 ATS)
Those of us who follow college hoops have watched as the USC Trojans have gotten hot at just the right time. On Sunday, USC tries to make it into the Sweet 16 when they face the Michigan State Spartans in the second round of NCAA Tournament that is scheduled to tip off at approximately 5 PM ET at the Metrodome in Minneapolis.
BetUS NCAA Basketball Sports Betting Odds: MICHIGAN STATE -4, Total 129.5
Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* USC has won and covered its last six games
* USC has played five of its last eight games OVER the total
* MSU has won seven of its last eight games SU
* MSU has covered nine of its last 14 games
* MSU has played nine of its last 12 games UNDER the total
USC was pretty impressive in its first-round NCAA game against Boston College, erasing a four-point halftime deficit and rolling to a 72-55 win as Dwight Lewis' defense keyed a shutdown of Tyrese Rice (nine points) and held the Eagles to an absurd 33% shooting. Michigan State got a #15 seed in Robert Morris, so there was not an opportunity to show very much, but they got the job done, winning 77-62.
This is an interesting battle between two teams who do not depend on three-pointers, preferring instead to do their business inside the arc, and if possible, close to the basket. Michigan State has long proded itself on being able to control the boards, and when Tom Izzo brings a team into the NCAA Tournament, history has demonstrated that he is dangerous, no matter the talent level. This season he has more to work with than usual; his club roared to the Big Ten regular season title by a four-game margin, and keep in mind that this is a conference that put seven teams in the Big Dance field. Kalin Lucas has come in and done a very credible job taking over for Drew Neitzel at point guard; Raymar Morgan is a terrific, athletic player who shot 55%, and Goran Suton (9.5 ppg, 7.9 rpg) is not just another gawky big man, although he doesn't block shots.
That's all good, but in a battle of teams that don't have particularly explosive offenses, we prefer to side with USC, which has the hotter hand right now. The Trojans have won and covered six games in a row, and the last four were against teams that made it to the NCAA tourney - California, UCLA, Arizona State and Boston College. In four of the last five games, they have shot 50% or better. They have a coach in Tim Floyd who is very good at devising schemes to "junk up" opposing offenses; they have the best shot-blocker on the floor in Taj Gibson, who swatted away 2.8 shots per game and made all ten of his shots against Boston College. They've also got the freshman, DeMar DeRozan, who is officially stepping forward to become a mainstay, averaging 19 points over his last six games and shooting 60% over his last eight.
They also have Percy Romeo Miller, a/k/a rapper Li'l Romeo. He's DeRozan's buddy. He's played all of 12 minutes this season.
This is a team that was worrying for a while about its NCAA bid, but is certainly peaking at the right time, and demonstrating that perhaps it is a better unit without O.J. Mayo (the likely NBA rookie of the year). We're ready to take the points with USC and suggest that you do too.
JAY'S PLAY: USC +4 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
