Purdue vs. Connecticut - Are the Boilermakers for Real?

COLLEGE BASKETBALL BETTING

Game Match-up
Connecticut Huskies 7:00 ET - 3/26

NCAA Tournament games, but while the Huskies have coasted to an average margin of victory of 41.0 points per game, the Big Ten champs have only won their two games by a total of seven points.

The oddsmakers are expecting to see the top seed advance with ease in this one, as UConn has been lined at -7, while the ‘total’ sits at 134.5. Purdue went 1-2 SU & ATS when tabbed the decided underdog this season, and though it’s 7-1 SU in its eight neutral court games, PU lost juice for its betting backers by posting a 4-4 ATS mark. UCONN struggled for CBB bettors this year as a favorite (11-13 ATS), but they’re a $$$-making 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in its seven neutral court games this season.

(click here for your printable Sweet 16 bracket)

Purdue is set to make its first appearance in the Sweet 16 since 2000. It’s hard to pinpoint just one player that has keyed the success of the Boilermakers, but if there is a player that absolutely must have a good showing on Thursday night for them to advance, it is C JaJuan Johnson. The center will be matched up with C Hasheem Thabeet all night, and must do better than his 13.4 points and 5.6 rebounds per game for his squad to have success. In two tourney games this year, Johnson has averaged 18.0 points per game. F E’Twaun Moore has been the most consistent scorer on the team all season, as he paces the team with 14.0 points per game, and has netted 31 points in two tournament games thus far.

Though they survived a game at a relatively quick pace against #4 Washington last weekend, the Boilers absolutely must keep the pace of this game down to stand a chance. The defense ranks 14th in the land, surrendering an average of just 59.4 points per game, and ranks 12th in opposing field goal percentage (38.9%).

The scariest part about Connecticut’s 195 points scored in two games in this tournament is that Thabeet has really yet to make a huge impact. Yes, he scored 20 points against UT-Chattanooga in the opening round game, but he was one of three Huskies to reach the 20-point barrier. Against A&M, Thabeet only scored six points and hauled in four boards thanks to foul trouble. AJ Price, Stanley Robinson, and Jeff Adrien have picked up the slack though, as the trio has combined for 119 points in two tournament games.

Connecticut has absolutely dominated the glass in its first two games of this tournament, as it has a +35 rebounding margin so far. That number should improve against an undersized Purdue squad that ranked in the middle of the Big Ten in rebounding.

Without a doubt, the better talent lies on the bench of Head Coach Jim Calhoun. With that being said, Purdue has taken out two quality opponents from this tournament, and may just have enough to make it a third if the defense can really lock down and force the Huskies into some bad shots. The Boilers have played a lot of basketball of late, and have won six straight games coming into this contest. Don’t be surprised if that rises to lucky #7 on Thursday.

Rose’s Recommendation: 2* Purdue Boilermakers (+7)

(Rating Scale: 1* - 5*)