Sweet 16 Upset Pick - (2) Duke vs. (3) Villanova
by Robby Maddux
With expectations of underdogs making more noise in the Regional Semifinals, here's Thursday's puppy play of the day, as well as key Duke (30-6 SU, 17-17-1 ATS), starting at 9:55pm EST.
The Wildcats in the East are back in the Regional Semifinals for the fourth time in five years, though aren't receiving oddsmakers respect, listing them +2½. They've reached this point by dismantling No. 14 American 80-67 to start the dance, then cruised to an 89-69 victory over No. 6 UCLA to advance into the Sweet 16, while shooting 46.3 percent from the floor to end the Bruins' streak of three consecutive Final Four appearances. They went 1-1 ATS in the first two rounds.
—Wildcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
—Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
—Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
—Wildcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
—Wildcats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
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Duke (-2½) cruised to an easy 86-62 win over No. 15 Binghamton, but in Round 2 they avoided a near upset against No. 7 Texas. The Blue Devils held a seven-point advantage at the half, but the Longhorns fought back in the second period. The teams traded the lead in the final minutes of the game before Duke clinched the 74-69 victory to advance to the Sweet 16. They went 1-1 ATS in the first two rounds, too.
—Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
—Blue Devils are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big East.
—Blue Devils are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Analysis: Villanova crushed a strong UCLA team but to advance to the Elite Eight, it's simple. The Wildcats must play the same style of physical, aggressive defense against Duke as they employed against the Bruins. The Blue Devils have trouble versus speedy athletic clubs that can disrupt their perimeter shooters by quickly getting in their face. Villanova has the quick’s to take Duke's guards off the dribble on defense and offense, which is a quality the Wildcats are excellent at executing.
Free NCAA Tournament Picks: Villanova +120 ML
