Upset Alert - (5) Illinois Illini vs. (12) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Get your March Madness Bracket Here!

Illinois Fighting Illini (24-9 SU, 16-13-1 ATS)

NCAA Tournament (@ Portland)

BetUS NCAA Betting Odds: ILLINOIS -5, Total 125

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* WKY has won its last seven games SU

* WKY has covered nine of its last 11 games

* WKY has played its last five games UNDER the total

* ILL has won 17 of its last 25 games SU

* ILL has played four of its last six games OVER the total

* ILL has played 13 of its last 18 games UNDER the total

It's one thing when you are a school like Duke, North Carolina or U-Conn and you lose a first-round draft choice to the NBA. At that point it is simply a matter of reloading, not rebuilding. But when you are Western Kentucky and you lose a dominant player to the NBA, it is a different story.

When, on top of that, you have to replace the coach, you are certainly lowering expectations for the coming season.

That's why it is so noteworthy that Ken McDonald, in his first season at the helm at WKU, having taken over for Darrin Horn (departed to South Carolina) had his team back in the Big Dance after winning the Sun Belt title. Last season Courtney Lee, who wound up being drafted by the Orlando Magic, led the Hilltoppers into the Sweet 16, where they lost to UCLA. This team lost three starters besides Lee but produced an outstanding backcourt of Orlando Mendez-Velez and A.J. Slaughter, who are averaging almost 30 points between them. Balance is big on this team, with four starters averaging in the double digits.

What is yet to be determined is how much of an effect the loss of Chester Frazier is going to have on the Illinois club. Frazier broke his right hand during a practice and has already undergone surgery, making his return to the lineup almost impossible. The Illini has split two games without him. Frazier has dished out 5.3 assists per game, and was an important part of the defense, and so it is good news to that Western Kentucky backcourt that he won't be in the game.

There is no doubt that Illinois is going to try an exploit the size it has on the frontline. There is no way of ignoring what Mike Davis and 7-foot Mike Tisdale can do. Tisdale in particular has a chance to rule the lane, but Jeremy Evans and Sergio Kerusch make up for what they lack in pure size with tenacity. There is also no way to ignore that Illinois loses a lot unless either Calvin Brock or Jeff Jordan (son of Michael) have a career game taking Frazier's minutes.

Ilinois has certainly played the better schedule and beaten high quality opponents (Missouri, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan) but before we relegate Western to the same place we relegate a lot of "mid-major" teams to, let's not forget that this team scored a 14-point win over a Louisville team that, last we heard, had some talent. We're pretty confident grabbing the points with Western Kentucky, the five-point underdog in the BetUS Sportsbook NCAA Tournament betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: WESTERN KENTUCKY +5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)