Upset Alert - (6) Marquette vs. (11) Utah State

Marquette Golden Eagles (24-9 SU, 14-13-1 ATS)

NCAA Tournament (@ Boise)

: MARQUETTE -4.5, Total 142

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* UST has won 22 of its last 25 games SU

* UST has played six of its last seven games OVER the total

* MARQ has won 16 of its last 23 games SU

* MARQ has lost five of its last six games SU

* MARQ has played five of its last seven games OVER the total

Marquette brings some outstanding players to the table, and they have experience. Jerel McNeal, the leading scorer (19.7 ppg), also dishes out four assists per game. Wesley Matthews is right behind him at 18.4 ppg, and the beef is supplied by Lazar Hayward, who pulls down 8.6 rebounds a game. Hayward is a junior, while the other two guys are seniors. Another senior is most conspicuous by his absence. He is Dominic James, the point guard who doesn't shoot very well (42%, and 46% free throws), but had 5.1 assists with only 1.9 turnovers, and was a vital cog on the defensive end (2.2 steals/game).

James broke his foot in a game against U-Conn on February 25. Including that game, Marquette has lost five of its last six games without him. Of course, those other losses came at the hands of Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Villanova - all among the nation's finest. The win was a rout of St. John's in which Marquette led 38-10 at the half and played a nearly flawless game. All of that aside, this is a different team without the quarterback. McNeal even admitted "Our whole team changed completely" after the loss of James. The biggest criticism of the Golden Eagles was that they were not a deep team at all, and this injury leaves a very big hole that is not going to be filled.

So this team that won its first nine games in Big East play is now hoping for very good fortune in an effort to catch some lightning in a bottle. While the Eagles sort out their ball-handling dilemma, not such problem exists with Utah State, which turned it over less than eleven times a game and shoots just a tad under 50% for the season. There were some slip-ups: losses to BYU, Boise State and Saint Mary's on the road, and a conference loss to Nevada, but the Aggies, who knew their conference (the WAC) wasn't going to get any respect from the NCAA committee when it came to at-large berths. So they turned it on when it needed to, coming from behind to defeat New Mexico State, then easily beating Nevada in Reno in the title game of the WAC tourney.

The Aggies can fill it up from beyond the arc with the likes of Tyler Newbold (40%) and Stavon Williams (44%), but the easy baskets come from Tai Wesley, who shoots 59%, and Gary Wilkinson, the mainstay in the middle who is the team's most consistent scorer (17.1 ppg) and rebounder (6.9 rpg) and quite possibly the best player in the WAC. He'll give smallish Marquette some fits with his inside play.

Thirty wins is no joke. This is one for the "upset watch," as we grab 4.5 points with underdog Utah State in the BetUS odds.

JAY'S PLAY: UTAH STATE +4.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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