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ALCS Preview - Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees

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MLB Baseball Playoff Betting - Sports book Odds

Analyzing the Yankees-Angels Series

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

New York Yankees -190

Los Angeles Angels +155

EXACT SERIES RESULT

Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees

  • LA Angels to win 4-0 +2200
  • LA Angels to win 4-1 +750
  • LA Angels to win 4-2 +650
  • LA Angels to win 4-3 +600
  • NY Yankees to win 4-0 +750
  • NY Yankees to win 4-1 +450
  • NY Yankees to win 4-2 +300
  • NY Yankees to win 4-3 +350

The American League Championship Series gets underway on Friday night at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, with CC Sabathia of the Yankees taking the ball against John Lackey of the Angels. The Yankees and Sabathia are a -170 favorite in that opener (the Angels are +150) with a posted total of eight and a half runs.

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to the series:

  • LA has won ten of its last 11 games
  • LA has played five of its last six games UNDER the total
  • NY has won its last four games
  • NY has won 11 of its last 14 games
  • NY has played six of its last eight games UNDER the total

As far as the head-to-head matchup is concerned, the teams split ten meetings this season. The Angels won four of the six games that were played in Anaheim, but the Yankees took two of three at the Big A in late September, busting up an unfortunate string where they had lost eight of nine games in Orange County.

This series matches up the two highest scoring teams in the American league. The Yankees averaged 5.65 runs a game, while the Angels scored 5.45 runs per contest. New York outscored its opposition by a full run per game. The Yankees had a .636 winning percentage, and they were potent against both southpaws (.654) and righties (.627). The Angels were torrid against southpaws (.714) and they also went 32-25 as an underdog, which is unusual.

The Angels were incredibly consistent between what they did on the road (49-33, including playoffs) and at home (51-32, including the Boston series). The Yankees played at a commanding .711 clip (59-24) at their eponymous ballpark, while they were merely outstanding (47-35) away from home.

The thing I have been worried about from a Yankee standpoint is their ability to throw stoppers out there. CC Sabathia may have been a contender for the Cy Young Award in some other year, and he shared the lead in wins in the AL with 19. As a southpaw, however, he seems to be the kind of foe the Angels like to see, and he's only so-so against them (5-7, 4.72 ERA) in his career. After Sabathia, there is AJ Burnett, who was outstanding in Game 2 of the playoff series against Minnesota, and truthfully, has been very good over his last five starts. The only issue is that he walked five batters in six innings on Friday, but that didn’t hurt him. Then there is old reliable, Andy Pettitte, who has 15 post-season wins and held the Twins to a run on three hits on Sunday but he did have a 7.88 ERA in three starts against Los Angeles this year.

The Yankees look like they're going with a three-man rotation, because they trust Joba Chamberlain a lot more in the bullpen than they do as a starter, and the only other guy they would consider starting is Chad Gaudin, who leaves them at a disadvantage. If Sabathia and Burnett can go innings, that can turn out well for the Yanks, because they will be that much stronger in the bullpen, with the likes of Joba, Alfredo Aceves (10-1 on the year), Phil Hughes and the incomparable Mariano Rivera to take them the rest of the way.

As well as Brian Fuentes has pitched for the Angels (48 saves), he still had a high ERA (3.93) and when it comes down to it, the Yankees have one of the greatest post-season performers ever in Rivera, who has an ERA of 0.74 ERA under that kind of pressure, allowing only two homers in 121 innings.

Bobby Abreu, who had 100 RBI's and thirty steals, will be aiming to come back and haunt his former teammates. The Angels had eleven players with 50 or more RBI's, meaning that they are all skilled at bringing runs home. Everybody in the lineup is at .287 or better, and like the Yankees, there really isn't a spot where you can start pitching around guys. They can steal bases too, which will keep the Yankees on their toes. We also assert that Mike Scoscia is a little too sharp to fall victim to some of the stupid things that Ron Gardenhire did in the losing series against the Yankees.

With a 1.75 ERA from September 1 forward, Scott Kazmir gave a boost to the Los Angeles staff, but he'll have to do better than the five runs in six innings he allowed the Red Sox on Sunday. Otherwise, you may get something strong out of this staff, which surrendered just eight hits in the first two series games to Boston.

Rivera is the elephant in the room; I admit that. But the Angels will be coming in with a ton of confidence as they got past their post season nemeses with a three game sweep of the Red Sox.

With an offense that is constantly in motion they can keep the Yankees off balance, and they should be able to get some base runners against those Yankee starters. We're going to go out on a limb here and take the Angels to win the series, at +155 in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds, and we'll call it a seven-game victory. A Freeway Series, perhaps?

LOS ANGELES ANGELS TO WIN +600