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MLB ALDS Preview - Boston Red Sox vs. LA Angels... Again

Bookmark and Share by Charles Jay

Clearly the Angels are tired of losing in the playoffs to the Red Sox. Boston has beaten them in 2004, 2007 and 2008, winning nine of the ten games along the way. It didn't even matter in two of those seasons that the Angels had the home field advantage in the series. This season the Angels, who were lagging behind the Texas Rangers in the AL West standings early in the season, took control in the summer and never let go, winning 97 games, two more than the Sox. They have now won five decision titles in a six-year period.

BetUS Sportsbook Odds

BOSTON RED SOX -135

LOS ANGELES ANGELS +105


  • Exact Series Result
  • Red Sox win 3 - 0 +500
  • Red Sox win 3 - 1 +330
  • Red Sox win 3 - 2 +300
  • Angels win 3 - 0 +700
  • Angels win 3 - 1 +400
  • Angels win 3 - 2 +350

Virtually throughout the season, I have looked upon the Red Sox as the team that could not lose in the post-season, and maybe part of that was the fact that they have won the World Series twice in the last five years and have their deepest bullpen, perhaps ever.

Do I still feel that way? Well, I have to admit that the Yankees get in the way a little. At the season's outset, it was projected that Brad Penny and John Smoltz might provide some ridiculous depth to the Red Sox rotation, but those two slipped badly before revitalizing themselves in the National League, and Daisuke Matsuzaka came up hurt (he's back now and would start Game 4).

It has become increasingly hard to keep Jason Varitek in the lineup, after he has hit just .157 in the second half of the season. That puts things squarely in the hands of Victor Martinez, who upgrades the Red Sox lineup from an offensive standpoint, for sure.

No one in the American league has scored more runs than the Yankees, but the Angles are second. They are also second in on-base percentage and third in stolen bases, and they have the ability to play some "small ball" and would unquestionably be a stiff challenge to Martinez (and Varitek, whenever he is in the lineup).

These teams have played nine times this season; the Red Sox have won two of three as the home team, while the Angels have captured four out of six games in Anaheim. What's kind of tricky for Boston is that Los Angeles have a great balance between their performance at home (49-32) and on the road (48-33), averaging 5.5 runs a game across the board, while the Red Sox have at times not been able to get out of their own way when visiting (just 39-42). If they had been able to improve in that area, they would have been able to stay with the Yankees in the AL East.

I'm willing to concede that the Angels are as good as, if not better than, the Red Sox when it comes to scoring runs. They have people throughout the entire lineup who can contribute offensively, and the pickup of Bobby Abreu (103 RBI's, 30 steals) was brilliant. However, the Red Sox have scored more runs than anybody since August 18, and the big boost has been added by Martinez, who has batted .336 since putting on a Boston uniform.

Los Angeles has some nice balance in the rotation, and they did well in September, but when all is taken into account there is no one (and I'm including Jered Weaver) I would be particularly scared of aside from Scott Kazmir, who had a 1.75 ERA since September 1. I like the guys who can get out there and take control of a game at playoff time, and that's where Boston has the 1-2 punch with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. Beckett had some rough road to traverse toward down the stretch, and recovered to an extent with some decent outings. More importantly, he is 7-2 with a 2.90 ERA in post-season baseball. Lester, who starts Game 1, destroyed a lot of hitters at season's end, with a 2.47 ERA in his last eleven starts, and he held the Angels without an earned run in 14 innings in last year's ALDS.

When it comes to the third starter, the Red Sox may have to get creative. Clay Buchholz got shelled in his last two outings, but remember, you have Tim Wakefield and Dice-K and a deep bullpen, so there’s some backup.

Ah yes, let's talk about the bullpen. The Red Sox may not have the best bullpen statistically anymore, but there are plenty of arms here that can stop people, and you can add Billy Wagner to that list. That relief crew comes in handy when you're going hitter-by-hitter late in the game and may need to make multiple moves. L.A.'s Brian Fuentes has 48 saves, and that's great, but he gave up more than two runs per nine innings more than counterpart Jonathan Papelbon. The Angels' bullpen, with a 4.49 ERA, allowed opposing batters to hit .270, and only the Baltimore Orioles were more permissive in that regard. With six-inning starters the norm, relief pitching becomes more and more a part of this game, so this is a key edge for Boston.

If the Angels had one or two legitimate post-season stoppers in the rotation, I could possibly overlook the bullpen issue, but they don't, and the Red Sox are the team that knows how to win the big playoff games in recent years. That slides me over into their column, but not before they get a fight. So it's...

RED SOX IN FIVE GAMES (+300)