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Phillies Begin World Title Defense: Philadelphia vs Colorado

Bookmark and Share by Mike Rose

The Colorado Rockies (92-70 SU, 85-76 RL, 72-80-8 O/U) at Citizen Bank Ball Park on Wednesday at 2:30 PM ET.

The Phillies won the regular season series against the Rockies 4-2 and will send 2008 AL Cy Young award winner, Cliff Lee (7-4, 3.39 ERA) to the mound while the Rockies counter with staff ace right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez (15-12, 3.47 ERA).

Lee went 0-2 over his last three starts with a high 6.32 ERA while Jimenez compiled a 2-1 mark over the same span with a fine 2.70 ERA.

The Phillies snapped a three-game losing streak in their regular season finale, beating the Florida Marlins 7- 6 in 10 innings at home while the Rockies dropped two straight against the Los Angeles Dodgers to close out the regular season, losing their regular season series finale 5- 3 in L.A.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends and MLB Betting Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert MLB Free Picks.


  • Rockies are 6- 1 in their last 7 vs. National League East.
  • Rockies are 5- 1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
  • Rockies are 4- 1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
  • Rockies are 6- 1 in Jimenez’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Rockies are 9- 3 in Jimenez’s last 12 starts.
  • Phillies are 6- 0 in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite.
  • Phillies are 7- 0 in their last 7 playoff home games.
  • Phillies are 7- 1 in their last 8 vs. National League West.
  • Phillies are 6- 1 in their last 7 playoff games.
  • Phillies are 4- 1 in Hamels' last 5 starts vs. National League West.
  • Phillies are 1- 5 in Hamels' last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 8- 3 in the last 11 meetings.
  • Rockies are 2- 9 in the last 11 meetings.
  • Rockies are 1- 5 in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia.

MLB Odds


  • Colorado Rockies +1½ -190
  • Ubaldo Jimenez –R +120
  • Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +160
  • Cliff Lee –L -140
  • Over 8 -120
  • Under 8 Ev

The Scoop: Ubaldo Jimenez allowed one earned run in two of his last three starts, giving up four earned runs in the middle start of those three outings, but struck out 10 batters on Friday to lead Colorado to a narrow 4-3 win over the Dodgers.

Cliff Lee has looked mediocre at best in two consecutive starts, giving up seven earned runs on nine hits in six innings of an 8-4 loss at Milwaukee on Sept. 25 before allowing three earned runs on seven hits in 5.2 innings of a 5-3 loss to Houston on Thursday.

Analysis: I know Cliff Lee isn’t pitching very well coming into this contest – and Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez has been throwing the ball very well recently, but I like the Philadelphia Phillies to take this Game 1 showdown against Colorado for several reasons.

First of all, Lee hand-cuffed the Rockies in his only start against them this season, allowing one earned run on six hits while striking out nine in seven innings.

Philadelphia also pounded Jimenez the last time he faced them, rapping out seven earned runs on 10 hits in just four innings of a 7-4 win on May 22, of last season.

While the Rockies have gone a robust 6- 1 in their last seven games National League East and an impressive 4- 1 in their last five games as a road underdog, but Colorado will be facing a Phillies team that seems to just go bonkers at home, particularly in the playoffs.

The Phillies are 6- 0 in their last six playoff games as a favorite, a scorching 7- 0 in their last seven home playoff games and 7- 1 in their last eight games against NL West ballclubs.

While Colorado has gone 6- 1 in Ubaldo Jimenez’s last seven starts with four days of rest and an encouraging 9- 3 in Jimenez’s last 12 starts overall, Philadelphia has gone 6- 1 in their last seven playoff games, 4- 1 in Cliff Lee’s last five starts against a team with a winning record and 8- 2 in Lee’s last 10 starts as a favorite.

Last but certainly not least is the fact that Colorado has struggled mightily to beat the Phillies particularly in Philadelphia, going 1- 5 in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia and a dismal 2- 9 in the last 11 meetings overall.

I also like the Over in this matchup as it has gone a blistering 8- 3 in the last 11 meetings.

MLB Free Picks: Phillies SU Win/Over 8 Total Runs