in MLB Betting Trends

 

Sheets must perform

Don’t look now, but signs of life have been detected in Milwaukee.

The big buzz in Wisconsin is the decision by Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre to play one more season, but football is still months away. The real issue of the moment is the recent success of the baseball team. The Milwaukee Brewers beat the Atlanta Braves 5-4 Wednesday to complete a three-game sweep and lift their record to 12-10, putting the Brew Crew 1.69 units in the black.

Once upon a time, there was joy in the Land of Cheese. Paul Molitor and Robin Yount led the 1992 Brewers to a 92-70 record, four games behind the eventual World Series champions from Toronto. Then Molitor jumped ship to win a ring with the 1993 Jays, and Milwaukee went into a tailspin that lasted 12 long, arduous years. Besides Molitor’s departure, the ascension of owner Bud Selig to the commissioner’s role (and subsequent transfer of ownership to daughter Wendy Selig-Prieb) is seen as a major turning point for the worse.

Things are different now. After the 2004 season, Los Angeles investor Mark Attanasio snatched the club out of the MLB discard bin for $180 million. The Brewers went 81-81 the next year for their first non-losing season since the Molitor Era, earning nearly six units for their grateful supporters. To be fair to the previous administration, Attanasio has the benefit of working some young and exciting players into the mix. Second baseman Rickie Weeks, first baseman Prince Fielder (son of Cecil) and shortstop J.J. Hardy are three of the brightest infield prospects in the majors. With a strong and balanced starting rotation (Ben Sheets, Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, Tomo Ohka and Dave Bush), these Brewers are built for the future.

But Attanasio is doing far more than cashing in on Milwaukee’s pre-existing talent pool. The Los Angeles native is working to improve relations between the ball club and the long-suffering fans. Looking back to Milwaukee’s “glory years” of 1981 and 1982, the only times the Brewers have reached the postseason, Yount has been hired as a bench coach and throwback uniforms are being worn at Sunday home games. Small touches like these don’t directly affect the outcome of ball games (at least, not in any way that has been measured up to this point), but they are indicative of a healthy administration that is not content to put winning on the back burner.

Quiet turnaround stories like Milwaukee’s are a handicapper’s dream. The Brewers play in one of those dreaded “small markets” that Selig himself has painted as an obstacle to building a winning baseball team. There are no nationally televised Milwaukee home games on the schedule for the rest of 2006. This creates a vacuum of information that sharp bettors can exploit – provided the betting public doesn’t jump on the bandwagon after the Brewers’ first-ever sweep of the Braves.

Milwaukee resumes action Friday with a three-game set at Wrigley Field against one of their National League Central rivals, the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers are currently one game behind the 12-8 Cubs, but Chicago got some bad news last week when first baseman Derrek Lee broke two bones in his right arm; he’s expected to be on the shelf for two months. His MVP-level of play will be missed, both at the plate (1.063 OPS this year) and in the field (2003 Gold Glove winner).

For now, the Cubs are making do with Todd Walker at first. Walker doesn’t have Lee’s power, but he was arguably being wasted on the bench behind second baseman Neifi Perez. He’s responded with a .983 OPS, outstripping his career pace of .791, and the Cubs have broken even at 3-3 since Lee’s injury.

All three games between the Brewers and Cubs at Wrigley will be matinee affairs starting at 2:20 p.m. Eastern Time. Game 1 features Bush pitching for the visitors against former Brewer Glendon Rusch. Games 2 and 3, by the way, will be available nationally to WGN subscribers. Watch out for that bandwagon.