in MLB Betting Trends

Jason looking solid

Fear not, New York Yankees supporters. Your team still rocks.

Folks in the Big Apple were up in arms after their club’s 13-11 start to the 2006 campaign, creating a deficit of 2.55 units along the way. But, to paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, there’s no reason to go Henny Penny on the Bronx Bombers just yet. The Yankees entered Wednesday’s action just one game behind the 15-11 Boston Red Sox in the American League East Division.

The numbers back up New York’s prowess. Clay Davenport, one of the top seamheads at the Baseball Prospectus, has calculated the Yankees’ playoff chances (as of May 3) at 77.4 percent, compared to 37.7 for the Red Sox and 15.9 for the resurgent Toronto Blue Jays. The projections also figure the Yankees to finish at about 99-63 while the Sox go about 90-72. The methods used to generate those odds are a bit complicated to go into here, and Davenport doesn’t claim to have the ultimate replacement for the old crystal ball, but his numbers are at least grounded in some sense of reality.

He’s also a bit more optimistic about New York’s chances than even some pro handicappers appear to be. That gap seems to mirror the gap between “old” and “new” statistics and the way they are used to evaluate performance. For example, Randy Johnson had a 4.71 ERA after six starts. That’s not exactly the kind of number we’re used to seeing from the five-time Cy Young winner, who sports a career ERA of 3.13. However, Johnson’s WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched) is a solid 1.13, which ranks ninth in the American League.

Seamheads point to ERA as one of those statistics that doesn’t necessarily reflect how well a pitcher performs. A lot of things have to happen on the baseball diamond to get a runner across the plate, many of which are out of a pitcher’s control. But if a batter’s primary task is to get on base, a pitcher’s is the exact opposite, and WHIP reflects this. Johnson’s WHIP is 1.16 over his outstanding 19-year career, so he’s right on track.

Mike Mussina is doing great by any metric. At 2.31 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, the “Moose” looks like the same man who dominated the American League in his breakout 1992 campaign with the Baltimore Orioles, when he also had a 1.08 WHIP. If Mussina can keep this up, it will be his first quality season since 2003 – yet another 1.08 WHIP performance.

The starting rotation does fall off significantly after that. Shawn Chacon is 3-1 after four starts and has a better ERA than Johnson at 4.56, but his 1.44 WHIP tells a different story. Chien-Ming Wang has been even worse at 4.89 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. However, Jaret Wright (5.40 ERA, 1.88 WHIP after Wednesday’s quality start against Tampa Bay) appears to be rounding into form after missing much of last year with shoulder trouble. And Carl Pavano is expected to rejoin the rotation in June after his rehab stint in the Class A Florida State League.

Even if the Yankees starting rotation doesn’t improve, this remains a tough team to beat, thanks to a batting order that combined for a .872 OPS after 24 games. That’s nearly 200 points higher than opposing batters. The average final score? Yanks 6.1, Guests 4.1. If the sky is falling, it’s falling on New York’s opponents.

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