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ALCS Game 4 - Angels look to even the series versus the Yankees

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MLB Playoff Betting:  Will Sabathia Continue His Post-Season Run?

Game-day:  10/20/2009

First-pitch:  7:57 pm EST

C.C. Sabathia steps on the mound tonight in hopes of giving the New York Yankees a 3 to 1 lead over the Angels in the ALCS.  Sabathia has been absolutely brilliant in two post-season victories.  He’s only allowed 12 hits in 14 2/3rd innings and 3 runs for a 1.23 ERA and a .89 WHIOP.  It’s amazing what confidence in your batting line-up can do for a pitcher.

C.C. was known as a guy that couldn’t step it up in the post-season, but step it up is exactly what he’s been doing.  The Yankees have two guys that have stepped it up in the post-season, after getting unfairly called post-season duds, C.C. and Alex Rodriguez.  A-Rod has 8 hits (4 of those are home runs), 9 RBIs and is batting .348 in 23 at bats in the post-season. There is also a fella named Derek Jeter still hanging around between 3rd base and 2nd base that does it both on offense and defense.

The Angels looked anything but comfortable going into game three of this series.  After losing to New York in a marathon 13 inning slug fest over the weekend, L.A. needed to bounce back on their home field with a victory in Game 3.  The Angels did win, but it wasn’t easy.  Ervin Santana, who lost Game 2 in the 13th inning, came back and won Game 3 after pitching a single inning.  Those are the breaks, and Santana now has a loss and a victory in the ALCS after pitching a total of only 1 and 2/3rd innings.

L.A. sends late season acquisition Scott Kazmir to take on C.C.  Kazmir has only pitched 6 innings in this post-season.  He was belted for 5 hits which turned into 5 earned runs, one of them a home run, for a 7.50 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.  That was against Boston.  Now, Kazmir takes on the best hitting team in MLB with their ace pitcher on the mound.

Below are the baseball odds for this game in the MLB sportsbook.

New York Yankees
C.C. Sabathia                                                -1 ½ +120        -130                 O 8 -115

Los Angeles Angels
Scott Kazmir                                      +1 ½ -140        +110                U 8 -105

Turning to trends in the post-season really doesn’t do much good because the Yankees already have two stars that are coming up big in the post-season that they never had before.  That would be A-Rod and C.C.

The Angels are a good team, maybe a great team, but they got lucky on Monday, both Jeter and A-Rod hit home runs with nobody on base, and there no doubt that Kazmir is not pitching as well as Sabathia.  Sabathia has been nothing short of fantastic and has that look about him that some of the pitchers in past post-seasons have.  Think Jose Rijo with the Cincinnati Reds in 1990.

But C.C. is pitching off of three days of rest.  Will he be as effective with such a short layoff?  Yankee Manager Joe Girardi is certainly rolling the dice in this game.  If it works, then New York is pretty much guaranteed a spot in the World Series, the Angels can’t possibly beat the Yankees three straight times, but if it doesn’t, then the Yankees and Angels are tied.

My gut tells me that C.C. pitches a terrific game, but that it might not be enough.  The Angels are a scrappy team and deserve to be favorites on their home field.  In this game they are the underdog.  I have to go with the fact that the Angels gained some confidence after their 11th inning victory over New York on Monday.  That, coupled with the fact that C.C. hits the mound after only three days of the rest, and that I’m getting above better than even money on the Angels on the MLB moneyline, leads me to believe that the Angels are the team to bet.

That’s where I’m going.  Angels at +110 on the baseball moneyline.