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American League Championship Series Game 1 - Angels vs. Yankees

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New York Yankees

Game 1 - American League Championship Series
Friday, October 16 - 7:57 PM ET

BetUS MLB betting odds:  Yankees -175, Angels +155, Total 8.5

Right-hander John Lackey (12-8, 3.68 ERA) takes the mound for the Angels in Game 1, and he will be opposed by southpaw CC Sabathia (20-8, 3.31 ERA) of the Yankees.

Here are some of the MLB betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

  • LA has won its last six games
  • LA has played five of its last six games UNDER the total
  • LA has won its last five road games
  • LA has played 14 of its last 17 road games UNDER the total
  • NY has won four of its last five games
  • NY has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
  • NY has won eight of its last nine home games
  • NY has played six of its last seven home games UNDER the total

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD sports betting trends:

  • Sixteen of the last 24 meetings have gone OVER the total
  • NY has won five of the last six meetings as the home team
  • Five of the last six meetings in New York have gone OVER the total

We certainly know that the Yankees have all kinds of hitting at their disposal. There will be seven players in the lineup tonight who have hit 20 or more homers on the season. They also led the league in walks (4.1 per game), so opposing pitchers have to be careful not to let things get out of hand with them. But when you look at the Angels, they have some power but also other ways in which they can score runs. They were only slightly behind the Yankees in pushing runs across the dish this season.

CC Sabathia won 19 games in the regular season and one more in the playoffs, and the Yankees either have an awful lot of faith in him or little faith in the remainder of the rotation, because they seemed very excited at the prospect of being able to send him to the mound three times in this series, plans that may be dampened by possible rain between now and Saturday.

Sabathia was actually banged around a little by the Angels this season, losing two decisions and giving up nine earned runs in 13-1/3 innings (6.08 ERA). Maybe that's not so shocking, as the Angels have posted a 35-14 record against southpaw starters. Los Angeles has hitters who really know how to work the count, and when those guys get on base they are going to be looking to exploit it, not only be stealing bases (the Yankee catchers were only 28% successful in throwing out base stealers) but also by taking advantage of weak arms in the Yankee outfield.

John Lackey did not finish the season with a flourish, but he was brilliant in his first appearance in the post-season, as he held the Red Sox scoreless on four hits for 7-1/3 innings. His team was very effective as a traveler this season, posting a 49-33 record which includes the Game 3 win at Boston, which was done in come-from-behind fashion. This is a scrappy team and with five wins in the last eight meetings, if the Yankees thought they had a walkover, they've got another ting coming. 

We think we have an underdog play here, and we're going to take this price with the Angels, at +155 in the BetUS Baseball betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY:  L.A. ANGELS (+155) **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)