MLB Easy Pickings – Lincecum to Lead Giants Over Padres
The San Diego Padres (35-48 SU, 40-42 RL, 41-38-3 O/U) and the San Francisco Giants (46-37 SU, 50-32 RL, 35-39-8 O/U) meet at AT&T Park tonight at 10 PM ET.
The Padres have lost four consecutive games and lot to the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-2 on Wednesday, failing to cash in for BetUS MLB sports betting members as +140 underdogs while the eight combined runs cashed in just Under the 8.5-run Over/Under total.
Will Venable and Kevin Kouzmanoff drove in the runs for the Padres in a losing effort while Greg Burke gave up two runs in relief and was tagged with the loss.
The Giants failed to complete a three-game sweep of the Florida Marlins on Wednesday, getting shut out 7-0 and failing to cash in for MLB sports betting enthusiasts as -120 favorites.
Ryan Sadowski gave up five hits and three runs over five innings in taking the loss as the game's seven total runs played Under the 8.5-run O/U total.
Tonight, the Padres will hand the ball to right-hander Josh Geer (1-3, 5.01 ERA) while the Giants counter with staff ace right-hander Tim Lincecum (9-2, 2.23 ERA).
Greer limited the Los Angeles Dodgers to one run on seven hits in 6.1 innings of a 7-4 win on Saturday.
Lincecum did not allow a single run the last time he took the mound, shutting out the Houston Astros on three hits over seven innings of San Francisco’s 9-0 win on Saturday.
Here is a look at tonight’s key MLB trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.
The Padres are 17-36 in their last 53 games as an underdog.
The Padres are 19-43 in their last 62 road games.
The Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League West.
The Padres are 2-5 in Geer's last 7 starts.
The Padres are 0-8 in Geer's last 8 road starts.
The Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
The Giants are 4-0 in Lincecum's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Giants are 5-1 in Lincecum’s last 6 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
The Giants are 5-1 in Lincecum’s last 6 starts.
The Over is 5-1 in Padres last 6 overall.
The Over is 4-1 in Geer’s last 5 road starts.
The Under is 4-1 in Lincecum’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
The Under is 6-2 in Lincecum’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
The Giants are 4-0 in Lincecum’s last 4 home starts vs. Padres.
The Under is 4-0 in Lincecum’s last 4 home starts vs. Padres.
The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Francisco.
The Under is 8-2 in Lincecum’s last 10 starts vs. Padres.
The Padres are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
The Giants are 6-2 in Lincecum’s last 8 starts vs. Padres.
The Padres are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in San Francisco.
San Diego Padres +1½ +105
Josh Greer – R +240
San Francisco Giants -1½ -125
Tim Lincecum –R -300
Over 7 -125
Under 7 +105
Analysis: The San Francisco Giants are ranked 13th in hitting with a team batting average of .261 while are averaging 4.2 runs per game this season.
On the other side of the ball, the Giants are ranked 1st in pitching with a team earned run average of 3.49. Opponents are hitting just .241 against the Giants this season.
The San Diego Padres are ranked 30th in hitting with a team batting average of .236 while averaging 3.8 runs per game this season.
Their pitching isn’t much better as they are ranked 26th with a team earned run average of 4.68. Opponents are hitting .260 against the Padres this season.
Josh Greer has been throwing the ball very well for the Padres lately, not allowing more than three earned runs in four consecutive starts despite going 0-1 with three no decisions during the span.
Unfortunately for San Diego backers, the Padres will be facing a red-hot Tim Lincecum who has been absolutely incendiary over his last nine starts, tossing three complete-games during the span while not allowing a single run in four of those outings and limiting the Giants’ opponents to one run in two other starts.
The Giants are the easy pick behind Lincecum tonight as they have gone a perfect 4-0 in Lincecum's last four starts against a team with a losing record and 5-1 in Lincecum’s last six starts overall.
The Giants have also managed to go 5-1 in their last six home games against a team with a losing record and a solid 13-5 in Lincecum’s last 18 starts as a home favorite.
In addition to those glowing trends favoring the Giants, the San Diego Padres have gone a pitiful 0-8 in Josh Geer's last eight road starts, 2-5 in Geer's last seven starts overall and an uninspiring 17-36 in their last 53 games as an underdog.
The Padres have also recorded a 19-43 mark in their last 62 road games while going a dismal 1-4 in their last five games against National League West opponents.
I also like the Under for this contest, having gone a spotless 4-0 in Tim Lincecum’s last four home starts against the Padres and 5-1 in the last six meetings between the division rivals in San Francisco.
MLB Free Picks: San Francisco Giants -1½ Runs/Under 7 Total Runs
