MLB Playoff Picks - Yankees try to close out the Angels

MLB: Yankees Look to Join Phillies in the Fall Classic

Game-day: 10/22/2009

First-pitch: 7:57 pm EST

The Angels will attempt to save some pride in L.A. when they take the diamond today for Game 5 in the ALCS.

The Dodgers blew their chances of a possible freeway series as they fell to the Philadelphia Phillies 10 to 4 in Game 5 of the NLCS. A freeway series won’t happen in 2009 now that the Dodgers have gone down. L.A.’s other team, the Angels, are hoping that there is a miracle in the City of Angels left that can keep them from suffering the same fate as the Dodgers.

The Yankees will try to make sure that the Angels fall just as hard as the Dodgers did. New York is on the cusp of reaching the World Series yet again after winning the first 3 of 4 games in the 2009 ALCS. The Yankees have been an unstoppable force straight-up and on the MLB moneyline in these playoffs. After sweeping the Minnesota Twins, they’ve dominated the L.A. Angels up to this point and will look to put the Angels away tonight with A.J. Burnett on the mound.

Burnett has been very good in 12 innings of work in the post-season. He’s allowed only 3 runs off of 6 hits for a 2.19 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Burnett will look to shut down the Angels’ talented batting line-up tonight like he did in Game 2 of the ALCS where he allowed only 6 hits and 2 runs in 6 1/3rd innings.

Standing in his way will be Angels’ pitcher John Lackey. Lackey’s actually been better than Burnett in the post-season, allowing 13 hits in 13 innings for only 4 runs and a 1.38 ERA. Lackey could have issues keeping the Yankees off of the bases as his 1.31 WHIP is worse than Burnett’s.

Below are the baseball odds in the MLB sportsbook for this game.

New York Yankees

A.J. Burnett – R +1 ½ -210 -105 O 8 ½ -115

Los Angeles Angels

John Lackey – R -1 ½ +175 -115 U 8 ½ -105

Burnett is a big game pitcher but what’s more important to understand in regards to the pitching in this game is that Lackey’s ERA is somewhat misleading. Lackey has that great ERA because he was fantastic in his first post-season game, a shut-out of the Boston Red Sox on October 8th.

In his game against the Yankees, he gave up 9 hits in 5 2/3rd innings, 4 runs and walked 3, for a 3.18 ERA. Granted, his team couldn’t help him as C.C. Sabathia shut them down, but Lackey still had a worse than expected game against New York.

The same can’t be said for Burnett who was legitimately inspired in his victory over the Angels. Burnett did allow 2 runs, but in most cases when he does that, the Yankees end up winning easily. Against the Angels on that day, pitcher Joe Saunders was equally inspired, going 7 innings, allowing 6 hits and only 2 runs.

Will Lackey be as inspired and effective as Saunders was? I doubt it while A.J. Burnett, who is no stranger to big games, should be. This is a good opportunity for MLB betting fans to get a great price, -105, on a terrific pitcher in a tough game.

The baseball odds are Yankees -105 to close out the ALCS and make it into the World Series to face the Philadelphia Phillies.

That’s the baseball bet to make in this game.