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NLCS Game 1 Pick - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

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MLB:  Phillies Send Hamels to the Mound to Take Down the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLCS

Game-day:  10/15/2009

First-pitch:  8:05 pm EST

The Philadelphia Phillies needed a 9th inning rally in Game 4 of their series against the Colorado Rockies in order to get into the NLCS.  Down 4 to 2 with only three outs to work with, the Phillies mustered an incredible 3 run 9th in order to make it into their second NLCS and to give themselves a chance a second straight World Series.

Ryan Howard doubled to deep right, bringing home Shane Victorino and Chase Utley.  Then, Jayson Werth singled Howard home to give the Phillies a 1 run lead going into the bottom of the 9th inning.  It took Phillies’ closer Brad Lidge to retire Colorado cleanup man Troy Tulowitzki with runners on first and second in order for the Phillies to begin the celebration, and what a celebration it must have been for the hard-nosed, blue collar Phillies.

The celebration is over now, though, that’s for sure.  On Thursday, the Phillies begin their quest for a second straight World Series when they take on the L.A. Dodgers who swept the St. Louis Cardinals over this past weekend.  L.A. was as impressive in their Game 3 series against the Cardinals as they have been during this year.  The Dodgers newest pitcher to their rotation, Vicente Padilla, threw a gem against the usually hard hitting Cardinals this past Saturday.  Padilla pitched 7 innings allowing only 4 hits and no runs.

It’s the Phillies versus the Dodgers for the right to represent the National League in the 2009 World Series. 

When it comes to MLB gambling, some baseball odds make sense and some do not.  Such is the case in Game 1 of the NLCS this year.  Below are the MLB game odds first.

Philadelphia Phillies – Cole Hamels
Los Angeles Dodgers – Randy Wolf

MLB money line – Philadelphia (-105) vs. L.A. Dodgers (-115)

MLB run line odds – Cole Hamels (+1 ½ -210) vs. Randy Wolf (-1 ½ +175)

The baseball bet that makes absolutely no sense in this game is on Cole Hamels at +1 ½ -210.  The reason being is that Cole Hamels, as good as he was in the playoffs last year, just hasn’t been that good in the playoffs this year.

Granted, the last time he took the mound, he was worried about his wife delivering their first child, but he pitched terribly against the Colorado Rockies, giving up 7 hits and 4 runs, 1 run being a homer, in only 5 innings.

If he pulls that on Thursday, then 1 ½ runs isn’t going to help baseball gambling fans.  The better wager is on either the Dodgers at -115 or the Phillies at -105 to win this game straight-up. 

It’s the first game of the NLCS and both teams will be looking to jump out to an early lead in the series. It really all depends on which pitcher comes in the most calm and collected.

The only time Wolf faced his former team, he dominated.  He pitched 6 innings, gave up 1 run, struck out 8 and allowed only 3 hits.  Wolf will be well rested while Hamels might or might not be on top of his game.

Hamels is a good pitcher, no doubt, and he usually comes up big time in these types of games, but the reality is that Hamels didn’t pitch well against Colorado in his lone playoff start and now faces a much deeper team.

Hamels could prove me wrong, but the Dodgers look too strong in this game.  In fact, unless a man named Cliff Lee takes the mound, I believe L.A. should win every game in this series.

My confidence in Wolf against his former team, the fact that the Dodgers are batting lights out right now, they scored 5, 3 and 5 runs against St. Louis in the 3 game sweep, and Joe Torre on the bench leads me to turn to the run line in this game.

My baseball bet is on the L.A. Dodgers and Randy Wolf at -1 ½ +175 to beat the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the NLCS.