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NLCS Game 3 Lock Alert – Phillies to Take 2-1 Lead Over Dodgers Tonight

Bookmark and Share by Eric Williams

The Philadelphia Phillies (97-71 SU, 74-84-8 O/U, 86-80 RL) are almost assuredly sick to death after blowing what looked like a sure win in Game 2 of their NLCS showdown against the Los Angeles Dodgers (99-68 SU, 73-80-13 O/U, 79-87 RL) on Friday. Well, they will have a chance to redeem themselves in Game 3 when the two longtime NL rivals square off at Citizens Bank Park tonight at 8 PM ET.

L.A. stole a narrow 2-1 win in Game 2 despite getting shut out by Philadelphia veteran right-hander Pedro Martinez for seven stellar innings as rookie left-hander J.A. Happ walked in the winning run in the eighth inning to help the Dodgers even the series at one game apiece.

Chase Utley committed an ugly throwing error for the second straight game, this time allowing the Dodgers to, er, rally for their two runs in the eighth and cash in for BetUS MLB sports book betting enthusiasts as -140 home favorites while the game’s final scored played Under the 8.5-run O/U total.

Tonight, Philadelphia will hand the ball to southpaw staff ace Cliff Lee (8-4, 3.00 ERA) while the Dodgers counter with right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (8-7, 3.76 ERA)

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends and MLB Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert MLB Free Picks.


  • Dodgers are 6-1 in their last seven games against a team with a winning record.
  • Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
  • Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Dodgers are 4-1 in Kuroda’s last 5 starts vs. National League East.
  • Phillies are 8-1 in their last 9 playoff home games.
  • Phillies are 7-2 in their last 9 playoff games.
  • Phillies are 5-0 in Lee’s last 5 starts vs. National League West.
  • Phillies are 6-1 in Lee’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Phillies are 4-1 in Lee’s last 5 starts as a home favorite.
  • Under is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Philadelphia.
  • Dodgers are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings in Philadelphia.

MLB Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers +1½  -140

Hiroki Kuroda – R +160

Philadelphia Phillies -1½  +120

Cliff Lee – L -190

Over 8 -110

Under 8 -110

The Starters: Hiroki Kuroda has gone 2-1 over his last three starts with a 2.25 ERA while Cliff Lee has gone 1-1 over his last three starts with a 2.05 ERA.

Analysis: I’ll be quick with this selection. I fully believe the Philadelphia Phillies will cruise to victory tonight behind their red-hot staff ace Cliff Lee, especially playing in front of their absolutely crazed home fans at Citizens Bank Park.

While the Dodgers have gone an impressive 6-1 in their last seven games against a team with a winning record, L.A. has some factors working against them as they’ve also recorded a dismal 1-4 record in their last five road games and identical 1-4 mark in their last five road games against a left-handed starter.

While Dodgers have gone an impressive 4-1 in Hiroki Kuroda’s last five starts against NL East ballclubs, the Dodgers will be taking on a Phillies team that has gone an incendiary 8-1 in their last nine home playoff games and equally impressive 7-2 in their last nine playoff games overall.

The Phillies are the easy pick here as they’ve also posted a spotless 5-0 record in Cliff Lee’s last five starts against NL West ballclubs and 6-1 mark in Lee’s last seven starts against a team with a winning record.

With Philadelphia going 4-1 in Lee’s last five starts as a home favorite and the Dodgers going a pitiful 2-7 in the last nine meetings in Philadelphia, I say the Phillies cruise to victory here.

With the Under going a very consistent 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Philadelphia, I say play the Under as well in this MLB parlay.

Take the Phillies to cover the Run Line while the Under cashes in.

MLB Free Picks: Phillies -1½ Runs/Under 8 Total Runs