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NLCS Game 5 – The Party’s Over, Phillies to Eliminate Dodgers Tonight

Bookmark and Share by Eric Williams

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that the Los Angeles Dodgers (99-70 SU, 80-88 RL, 75-80-13 O/U).

After one convincing loss in the series opener, one absolute spanking in Game 3, and a ninth-inning collapse in Game 4, (all winning predictions in the BetUS Locker Room I might add), the Dodgers are facing elimination when they take the field at Citizens Bank Park for Game 5 tonight at 8 PM ET.

Philadelphia recorded its latest victory in downright thrilling fashion as Jimmy ‘J-Roll’ Rollins smacked a two-run double in the bottom of the ninth inning of L.A. closer Jonathan Broxton to lift the Phillies to a ballpark-rocking 5-4 win in Game 4 on Monday night.

Philadelphia cashed in again, this time as -125 home favorites while the game’s nine combined runs made it just Over the 8.5-run Over/Under total in the BetUS Sportsbook.

Ryan Howard hit a two-run jack for the Phillies to join Hall of Fame legend Lou Gehrig as the only men in MLB history to drive in a run in eight consecutive postseason games, while closer Brad Lidge picked up the win in relief of mediocre starter Joe Blanton.

James Loney went 2-for-4 with one RBI for Los Angeles in a losing effort while Broxton was tagged with the loss after seeing his 99-mile per hour fastball to Rollins absolutely ripped into the gap for the game-winning hit.

Now, down 3-1, the Dodgers will give the ball to veteran right-hander and former Phillie Vicente Padilla (13-6, 4.17 ERA) hoping he can duplicate his fantastic Game 2 performance when he limited Philadelphia to one earned run on four hits in 7.1 innings to help the Dodgers win their only game of the series.

Philadelphia will counter with 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels (11-12, 4.46 ERA) hoping he can get back to being the dominant pitcher he normally is despite earning the victory in Game 1 despite allowing four earned runs on eight hits – including two home runs – in just 5.1 innings.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends and MLB Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert MLB Picks.

  • Dodgers are 1-6 in their last 7 road games.
  • Dodgers are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Dodgers are 4-0 in Padilla’s last 4 starts.
  • Dodgers are 5-0 in Padilla’s last 5 road starts.
  • Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 League Championship home games.Phillies are 10-1 in their last 11 playoff home games.
  • Phillies are 5-2 in Hamels' last 7 starts vs. National League West.
  • Phillies are 1-4 in Hamels' last 5 starts.
  • Phillies are 1-6 in Hamels' last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

MLB Odds

  • Los Angeles Dodgers +1½ -170
  • Vicente Padilla –R +120
  • Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +150
  • Cole Hamels –L -140
  • Over 8½ -110
  • Under 8½ -110

The Starters: Vicente Padilla has gone a spotless 2-0 over his last three starts with a microscopic 0.93 ERA while Cole Hamels has gone an uninspiring 1-2 with a high 7.42 ERA over his last three starts.

Analysis: Vicente Padilla has been on fire over his last three starts, allowing just one earned runs in two of those outings while tossing seven shutout innings in the other. Philly’s Cole Hamels has been borderline atrocious in each of his last five starts, allowing four earned runs twice, three earned runs in another start and a whopping six earned runs in the other. Still, I have to say the Philadelphia Phillies are the easy pick to win this contest straight up (SU) as they have the far better batting order and will be playing in front of their crazed home fans where they have won 10 of their last 11 playoff games.

Padilla tossed an absolute gem in Game 2, but was matched pitch-for-pitch by veteran right-hander Pedro Martinez – and the only reason L.A. won that day was because of a late-inning melt-down by several Phillies relievers, coincidentally, none of them named Brad Lidge.

While the Dodgers have gone a wonderful 4-0 in Padilla’s last four starts and an even more impressive 5-0 in Padilla’s last five road starts, I think L.A. will succumb to their 1-6 SU mark in their last seven road games, not to mention the fact that they’ve gone a dismal 1-5 in their last six games versus a left-handed starter and a pitiful 0-4 in their last four road games against a southpaw.

While the Phillies have struggled with Cole Hamels on the mound, going a discouraging 1-4 in Hamels' last five starts and 1-6 in Hamels' last seven home starts against a team with a winning record, Philadelphia backers can look to its perfect 4-0 mark in their last four LCS home games and 5-2 record in Hamels’ last seven starts against NL West ballclubs.

I’ll simply use the K.I.S.S. method for this one (Keep it Simple Stupid) and take the Phillies for the straight up home win, which will put Philadelphia in the World Series for the second consecutive season.

MLB Free Picks: Phillies SU Win