Picking Winners - Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners

Orioles, Mariners Looking For SU, RL Win as Washburn, Bergesen Take Hill

The Baltimore Orioles (36-46 SU, 39-43 RL, 42-36-4 O/U) and Seattle Mariners (42-39 SU, 40-41 RL, 33-46-2 O/U) battle at Safeco Field tonight at 10 PM ET.

The Orioles have dropped two straight and four of five overall after falling to the Los Angeles Angels 9-6 as a +150 underdog on Sunday.

Brian Roberts homered and had three RBI for the Orioles and Matt Wieters was 3-3 with two runs scored in a losing effort while the final score played Over the 10-run O/U total.

The Mariners had their three-game winning streak snapped in its 8-4 loss to Boston as a +230 underdog on Sunday.

Ronny Cedeno had three RBI for the Mariners while the 12 total runs scored played Over the 9.5-run O/U total.

Tonight, the Orioles will hand the ball to right-hander Brad Bergesen (5-2, 3.53 ERA) while the Mariners counter with left-hander Jarrod Washburn (4-6, 3.36 ERA).

Bergesen limited the Boston red sox to one run on just four hits in a 6-5 loss on Wednesday while Washburn gave up a season-high three homers and four runs over seven innings in Wednesday's 4-2 loss to the Yankees.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.

• The Orioles are 28-59 in their last 87 games as an underdog.
• The Orioles are 28-61 in their last 89 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
• The Orioles are 4-1 in Bergesen's last 5 starts.
• The Orioles are 1-4 in Bergesen’s last 5 starts as a road underdog.
• The Mariners are 7-1 in their last 8 home games.
• The Mariners are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• The Mariners are 5-11 in Washburn’s last 16 starts vs. American League East.
• The Mariners are 4-10 in Washburn’s last 14 starts as a home favorite.
• The Over is 4-1-1 in Orioles last 6 games as an underdog.
• The Over is 4-0 in Bergesen’s last 4 starts overall
• Under is 5-0-1 in Mariners last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
• The Under is 4-0 in Washburn’s last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
• The Over is 6-1 in Washburn’s last 7 starts vs. Orioles.
• The Over is 5-1 in Washburn’s last 6 home starts vs. Orioles.
• The Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
• The Orioles are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
• The Mariners are 1-4 in Washburn’s last 5 home starts vs. Orioles.
• The Mariners are 0-4 in Washburn’s last 4 starts vs. Orioles.
  
  

Baseball Odds:

• Baltimore Orioles +1½ -210
• Brad Bergesen –R -105
• Seattle Mariners -1½ +175
• Jarrod Washburn –L -115
• Over 8 -115
• Under 8 -105
  
  

Analysis: The Seattle Mariners are my pick in this contest as they have gone 7-1 in their last eight home games and an identical 7-1 in their last eight home games versus a right-handed starter.

Seattle has won four of six against  the Orioles this season including two of three at Safeco Field from June 1-3.

Baltimore Orioles rookie Brad Bergesen has also gone winless away from home this season, going 0-1 with a 4.88 ERA in five starts. The Orioles are just 1-4 in Bergesen’s last five starts as a road underdog and an uninspiring 28-59 in their last 87 games as an underdog.