in MLB Props
Handicapping the National League West - Oh Manny
by Charles Jay
The National League West was a bizarre thing last season. The Arizona Diamondbacks got off to a huge start, and looked like the team that could have the best record in baseball. Then they went into a swoon, coming back to the field, which struggled to stay above .500. Ultimately, the Dodgers with 84 wins, took the division title, and Arizona didn't even get into the post-season. This year no one has done enough to surge ahead of the field, though having Manny Ramirez for more than a third of the season will help L.A.'s chances.
Let's take a look at the numbers.
BetUS Sportsbook MLB Odds
To Win NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks +140
Colorado Rockies +700
Los Angeles Dodgers +140
San Diego Padres +1200
San Francisco Giants +400
The ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (+140 at BetUS) have the best 1-2 punch in the division at the top of the rotation in Brandon Webb (22-7, 3.30 ERA) and Dan Haren (16-8, 3.33 ERA), who has pitched 200 or more innings in each of the last four years. The D-Backs went out and acquired Jon Garland, who was 14-8 with the Angels last year but faded in the second half. Chad Qualls will be the closer; he had eight blown saves last year. This team should have been adding some pop to the lineup; instead, Adam Dunn left town and went to Washington. Felipe Lopez takes over at second base; in 2006 he stole 44 bases, but had only eight last season. Third baseman Mark Reynolds led the majors in both striking out and committing errors last season - that combination hasn't been seen since 1950.
The LOS ANGELES DODGERS (+140 at BetUS) scored a big win already by re-signing Manny Ramirez, who hit 17 homers with 53 RBI's and batted .396 in 53 games in Dodger Blue last season. He's 37, but he still has some lightning in that bat. The Dodgers lost veterans Jeff Kent, Andruw Jones, Nomar Garciaparra and Mike Sweeney, but that should have no major impact. Will Rafael Furcal be healthy? The shortstop hit .357 before succumbing to injury last year. Russell Martin is perfectly capable of a .300 season with 20 steals behind the plate. James Loney, Matt Kemp and Casey Blake are nothing super-special, but they are solid contributors. Los Angeles is looking forward to continued development from 21-year-old Clayton Kershaw, who struck out 100 batters in 107 innings. There are some questions elsewhere. Chad Billingsley (16-10, 3.14 ERA) is coming off a broken leg. Randy Wolf has a history of time on the DL. Jason Schmidt pitched in six games in 2007 and hasn't seen action since. All in all, this is a team, with Ramirez in the lineup from the start, that has the slight edge over anyone else, because they have the best offense in the division.
The SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (+400 at BetUS) have a potentially sizzling rotation. They added Randy Johnson, the future Hall of Famer who might have a season left in him. Tim Lincecum (18-5, 2.62 ERA, 265 strikeouts) won the Cy Young last year; Matt Cain was 8-14 with a very good 3.76 ERA. He just didn't get any offensive support (only 3.14 runs a game). Barry Zito suffered from the same thing; he had a 3.15 ERA in September and may be able to rebound. Bob Howry and Jeremy Affeldt lend some depth to the bullpen. Hitting is a problem. Randy Winn has batted .300 each of the last two seasons, but San Francisco needs more from Aaron Rowland. Edgar Renteria comes on board at shortstop, and Pablo Sandoval, who hit .345 in his brief stay at the Bay, will find someplace to play. More offense is needed, but if they get it, the Giants could easily lead the pack in a division where there won't be a lot of distance between the bottom and the top.
The COLORADO ROCKIES (+700 at BetUS) are, of course, just one year removed from a World Series appearance. They did suffer some player losses from last year's disappointing squad. Brian Fuentes and Willy Taveras departed via free agency, and Matt Holliday, the team's best hitter, was traded to Oakland. Troy Tulowitzki followed his 99-RBI rookie season with an injury plagued year in which he hit eight homers and batted in 46 runs. He did hit .327 in the second half of the year. Todd Helton is sliding. He had back issues last year, hitting just .264 in 299 at-bats. This team lacks offense, which doesn't make it any different than at least three of the others in the NL West. There is some real hope with the starting staff, however. Aaron Cook (16-9, 3.96 ERA) should be able to shake off his sluggish second half; Jeff Francis won 17 games in '07 but had shoulder problems last season. Ubaldo Jiminez (12-12, 3.99 ERA) was solid, and Jorge De La Rosa struck out 128 hitters in 130 innings.
The SAN DIEGO PADRES (+1200 at BetUS), who lost 99 games last year, have a big hole at the closer position as Trevor Hoffman has left, to be replaced in all likelihood by Heath Bell, who is not coming off a big year. Nick Hundley takes over behind the plate and he'll be working with two of the better starters in the league, when healthy - Jake Peavy, the 2007 Cy Young winner, and Mammoth righty Chris Young. The Padres would like Wade LeBlanc to be the left-hander in the rotation, and would also like for Mark Prior to become the "guy out of nowhere" as the fireballer missed all of last season with a shoulder injury. Outside of Adrian Gonzalez (36 HR, 119 RBI) and perhaps third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff (23 HR) there is little firepower. Brian Guiles hit .306 in 2007, but he has lost his power stroke. If Peavy and Young are healthy all year, there is a chance at the .500 mark. Otherwise, it's another long season.
