in MLB Props
Handicapping the NL MVP
by BetUS Staff
BetUS sports wagering on major league baseball love to speculate about who will win the Most Valuable Player awards in the respective leagues. Well, you can bet on all of that at BetUS.
Today we take a look at what might happen with the National League MVP, recognizing that there is a difference between Cy Young voting and MVP voting, in that unless a player does someone truly extraordinary, his chances are lessened if he is not part of a contending team.
First, here are the MLB odds:
BetUS MLB Baseball Futures Odds
To Win NL Most Valuable Player
Lance Berkman 5/1
Ryan Braun 8/1
Matt Holliday 15/1
Ryan Howard 8/1
Chipper Jones 13/2
Derrek Lee 8/1
Russell Martin 12/1
Albert Pujols 4/1
Hanley Ramirez 7/1
Dan Uggla 16/1
Chase Utley 3/1
David Wright 13/2
Field 13/2
Let's take a quick look at each of them (statistics presented reflect games through Monday):
Lance Berkman 5/1 at BetUS -- Berkman is right up there as far as statistical accomplishment is concerned - he's batting .338 with 22 homers and 73 RBI's. He has 15 stolen bases and a .628 slugging percentage, which is tops in the league. But he isn't even the RBI leader on his own team (Carlos Lee has that distinction) and he is not a contender for the post-season. In fact, his Astros aren't even in the conversation.
Ryan Braun 8/1 at BetUS -- Braun is, at the moment, the home run and RBI leader of a team that is the hottest in baseball, and headed toward contending for a division title and/or a wild card berth right up to the end. he is one of the slugging leaders with a .558 figure, and is more than deserving. But maybe his .288 average works against him.
Matt Holliday 15/1 at BetUS -- Holliday is well-qualified from the statistical standpoint - his .340 average is third int he NL, and he's got 17 homers and 58 RBI's. But unless he surges to the batting crown, and his team suddenly becomes a team making a run at the NL West title, he won't get heavy consideration. Actually, those two things could conceivably happen, but you'd have to get a better price than this for it to have some value.
Ryan Howard 8/1 at BetUS -- Howard, the MVP from a couple of seasons ago, is putting up very big production right now, leading the league in both home runs and RBI's. He's on a pennant contender. And everyone is in awe of his power. But he is stuck with a .236 batting average, and if that doesn't improve - considerably - he is going to give voters sufficient reason to instead vote for another player on his team, Chase Utley, who has had a grasp on the favorite's role almost from the beginning.
Chipper Jones 13/2 at BetUS -- No one knows if the Braves are going to eventually show up in the thick of the National League East race. Jones might be able to overcome that handicap, but he'll have to, in my opinion, not only win the batting crown, but also maintain an average that is close to what he has now (.371).
Derrek Lee 8/1 at BetUS -- I respect Lee's position here as the representative of a team that may be the best in the National League when all is said and done, and voters like to vote for pennant-winning players. But Lee's statistical achievements are nothing that make him stand out from the rest of the ensemble of Cubs who surround him. You could easily plug Geovany Soto or Aramis Ramirez or Alfonso Soriano into his place, but that doesn't mean they'd be legitimate MVP contenders.
Russell Martin 12/1 at BetUS -- The Dodgers would have to stay right up near the top of the NL West for him to have a chance. But from my perspective, I always like the added value of a guy at catcher, especially one who can hit for average and has some speed. For a long time I thought, for example, that while Ivan Rodriguez may not have been an MVP contender in many of the years he played, he may have been the most valuable player overall.
Albert Pujols 4/1 at BetUS -- Pujols is one of those guys who is almost always going to be a contender. In his favor he has hit 18 homers, is hitting .356 and may eventually win the batting title, and his .468 on-base percentage indicates that he is the most feared hitter in the Cardinal lineup. Those are MVP credentials. What he may have working against him is that there are three players in the same lineup who have as many or more homers, and who have more RBI's. Remember, voters love to look at pretty stats, and they like power hitters who can at least lead their team in power categories.
Hanley Ramirez 7/1 at BetUS -- Ramirez, who is most comfortable batting leadoff, has driven in 45 runs nonetheless, to go with 23 homers. He is hovering around the .300 mark (as of Tuesday he was .301), plays at a "glamour" position (shortstop) and also brings base-stealing ability to the table, a commodity that is getting rarer. Ramirez has 23 stolen bases, will most likely be a 30-30 man and has an outside shot at 40-40. He is extremely viable, but his Marlins have to stay in the race to the finish.
Dan Uggla 16/1 at BetUS -- Uggla is something of a darkhorse, because he is a key player on a team that could well pull off a surprise, and if, statistically, he can surpass one of the acknowledged favorites, a fellow second baseman (Chase Utley) he can position himself as the one who is "most valuable." Still, what he has working against him, aside from the fact that he has struck out 103 times, is that Hanley Ramirez is perceived as the best player on his team, and is having a year worthy of MVP consideration.
Chase Utley 3/1 at BetUS -- I like Utley's candidacy, because he is a second baseman, and at that important defensive position, offense is always perceived as a bonus. But he's being surpassed in power categories, is hitting just .292, and is basically in the same neighborhood as Uggla offensively. If Florida blows past the Phillies at some point, he may not be able to hold on to much of an edge at all.
David Wright 13/2 at BetUS -- Wright has an outside shot, because his offensive statistics are good, and he is a Gold Glove-caliber third baseman. The Mets are a hot club. But I don;t know that he is presenting value right now.
Field 13/2 at BetUS -- I would probably leave pitchers out of this discussion, unless it was someone like Brad Lidge, who is making up for a lot of the Phillies' lack of starting pitching. I don't know that there are a lot of contenders outside this list.
This race is wide-open. like Pujols because I know voters are used to voting for him; after all, he's won the award before and finished in the top five in six of his previous seven major league seasons. Utley's got momentum from his hot start. Braun is a comer, and Ramirez is a well-rounded player on a surprise pennant contender. There's something that tells me if there is no clear-cut favorite toward the end, Martin may sneak in as a "compromise" candidate, because there are a lot of reasons for voters to like him in general. Of course, by that time his Dodgers must look like they are ticketed for the playoffs.
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)
