MLB Baseball - World Series Betting

I have to assert something and admit something at the same time. I like Tampa Bay's chances at the beginning of the season. To be greatly improved, that is. But not to go to the World Series and win it. Oddly, it seems almost half the people I know are Red Sox fans, and I kept telling them all year that this Tampa Bay team was not going to go away.

I think I told you guys too.

BetUS 2008 World Series Betting Odds

TAMPA BAY RAYS -150

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +120

Back on July 2, we evaluated the Rays' chances:

The best value of all might be out of an unlikely place - central Florida. The Tampa Bay Rays (+1200 in BetUS odds) are not going away. Believe me, they have had plenty of opportunities. But they have stared the Red Sox in the eye and managed to get the better of them lately. They bring the kind of pitching to the table that can keep them out of long losing streaks.

We were at the All-Star break, and I wrote this:

Tampa Bay Devil Rays (+350 in BetUS odds) -- Yeah, last time we talked I was putting value on Tampa Bay because I thought their pitching would keep them from going into a long losing streak. So here they are having lost seven games in a row and without Troy Percival, who had been a very strong closer for them (0.96 WHIP, 19 saves). But I still have faith in the Rays, because I know with their speed they can manufacture runs, and Evan Longoria looks like he's moving rapidly toward the .300 mark. I do not think this rotation is a mirage.

Catch this, from August 19 in the BetUS Locker Room:

Tampa Bay Devil Rays (+650 at BetUS) -- Anyone who was anticipating the demise of the Tampa Bay Rays was sadly mistaken. This team has fended off Boston for most of the year, but now is a critical stage for the Rays. They are now minus Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria AND Troy Percival, and they will have to pick up the slack for those guys, because the lead over teams like Boston, Minnesota and the White Sox is not that comfortable.

Still, I didn't think they would necessarily go through not one, but two playoff series and wind up in the Fall Classic. After blowing that 7-0 lead last Thursday, I saw the makings of a textbook collapse, but this team showed its mental toughness on Monday night, that's for sure.

I was in Nashville not long ago, and a friend of mine (a Red Sox fan, no less) told me to look out for the "secret weapon" Tampa Bay could use in the playoffs. You guessed it - it's the Vanderbilt alum (well, I don;t know if he graduated) - David Price. Of course, Price was no secret; he was quite possibly the best pitcher in the minor leagues, and the best prospect to come along in a while. But because Tampa Bay had such a fine rotation, with Scott Kazmir, Andy Sonnanstine, Matt Garza (the ALCS MVP), James Shields and Edwin Jackson, there was not going to be a big opportunity for Price to crack it.

So they found a role for him.

When it comes down to it, pitching makes the difference here.

I have been skeptical about Philadelphia's starting pitchers all year. I don't think there is anyone there I would bank on (depending on the situation, of course) other than Cole Hamels, who will start Game 1 against Kazmir (incidentally, the Phillies are 32-22 against lefties, while the Rays are just 24-21). Beyond that, though, I'm not altogether on board with Jamie Moyer or Brett Myers or anyone else they have.