MLB Weekend Betting Preview

Things are getting very tight in the National League East. The Florida Marlins (+196 road dogs) blanked the Philadelphia Phillies 3-0 Thursday afternoon to climb within 1.5 games of the division lead. The New York Mets (-270 at home) stayed two games behind Philadelphia with a 5-3 win over the San Diego Padres. The Mets may be third in this race, but they’re +600 on the MLB betting odds to win the NL pennant, just behind Philadelphia at +500. Florida is a distant +1200.

Phillies fans, take heart: You get to watch the Marlins and Mets beat up on each other for a little while, starting Friday night at Shea Stadium.

Friday: New York Mets, 7:10 p.m. Eastern

The Marlins are sticking around in this division despite being outscored 565-546 on the season. Credit goes in part to the bullpen, which is 10th in the majors with a 3.71 ERA. Manager Fredi Gonzalez is also drawing praise for his work with a low-payroll team that appeared headed for rebuilding after trading Miguel Cabrera in the offseason.

Taking two of three in Philadelphia was a coup for the Marlins, who evened their road record at 28-28 (+10.34 units). The Phillies are actually a better away team this year; taking care of business will be more difficult for Florida at Shea, where the Mets are 34-21 for a profit of 3.73 units. The Mets won two out of three when they last met the Marlins in New York.

Ricky Nolasco (3.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) is scheduled to pitch for Florida. After starting the season in middle relief, Nolasco was quickly promoted and has paid off handsomely ever since. The Marlins are 15-7 with the righthander on the mound for a profit of 12.14 units. That’s third among all active starters in the majors. The Mets respond with Oliver Perez (4.12 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), who has shaken off a slow spring with six quality starts in his last seven outings.

Saturday: Philadelphia Phillies, 7:05 p.m. ET

The Phillies lead the division at 62-52 with a +72 run differential, second only to the Chicago Cubs (+143 at press time) in the NL. Yet Philadelphia is only 30-26 at Citizens Bank Park, dropping 5.91 units. The Pirates, on the other hand, seem to lose their way when they leave PNC Park; they’re 20-36 (-6.79 units) on the road.

The Pirates happen to be in the middle of a tough 10-game road stand following the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. They’re 2-6 since dealing Jason Bay to the Red Sox, which came on the heels of the trade that sent Xavier Nady to the Yankees. The Phillies are 3-3 over the same span; Brett Myers (5.34 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) has contributed with two straight quality starts, although he remains last in the majors with a deficit of 12.01 units on the season.

Myers will try to make it three in a row against a team that is batting just .674 OPS this month with Bay and Nady playing on greener pastures. Pittsburgh will have to do better than that with Ian Snell (6.14 ERA, 1.90 WHIP) on the mound. Snell hasn’t had a quality start since June 11; the Pirates are 3-5 in the interim with the over checking in at 6-2.