in MLB Props
MLB Win Total Props - The National League
by Charles Jay
PROJECTING WINS TOTALS FOR NL TEAMS
The way I attacked this one is that I sat down and made my own projections as to how many games each team in each division would win, and we're looking for a variance of a few games at least, relative to the price of course, to determine whether there is a "play: or not.
Arizona Diamondbacks Regular Season Wins
Over 86½ Wins +105
Under 86½ Wins -135
-- Obviously it depends on whether the pitching holds up. Offensively, this team is found wanting. My projection was a down season for them, with 83 wins, which actually might not put them far off the pace in the NL West. UNDER 86.5 (-135)
Atlanta Braves Regular Season Wins
Over 83½ Wins -120
Under 83½ Wins -110
-- New pitching acquisitions were made, but ultimately I don't see the Braves getting enough offense in what is going to be a tough division. My projection was 81 wins for them, although it could go slightly over that, so there is NO PLAY.
Chicago Cubs Regular Season Wins
Over 91½ Wins -125
Under 91½ Wins -105
-- From top to bottom, this is probably the best team in the National League. Sure, lots of ill-fortune could take them down, but my projection was 97 wins. OVER 91.5 (-125)
Cincinnati Reds Regular Season Wins
Over 80½ Wins +125
Under 80½ Wins -155
-- I may have been taking a bit of a shot with this, but I liked Cincinnati as a wild-card possibility, as I detailed when we were looking for ("The next Tampa Bay?"). I think their pitching will come together with at least four solid starters, and there are developing stars in the lineup like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. OVER 80.5 (+125)
Colorado Rockies Regular Season Wins
Over 77½ Wins +105
Under 77½ Wins -135
-- There is the nucleus of a decent staff here, but this team has really taken a slide. Dealing Matt Holliday was not the smartest thing in the world, and Todd Helton may have seen his best days. I liked Colorado more when it was playing something resembling softball in Coors Field. My projection was 72 wins, maybe one or two more. UNDER 77.5 (-135)
Florida Marlins Regular Season Wins
Over 76½ Wins +110
Under 76½ Wins -140
-- I think the Marlins are going to stay in the race all year, as they did for most of last season, and the pitching staff, if healthy, is going to be the big key. I had them at 90 wins, though that may be a bit of stretch. But they are a good play here. OVER 76.5 (+110)
Houston Astros Regular Season Wins
Over 74½ Wins +115
Under 74½ Wins -145
-- They're short on pitching, and short on offense. I figured them for 76 wins, but it could be less, so there is NO PLAY.
Los Angeles Dodgers Regular Season Wins
Over 82½ Wins -210
Under 82½ Wins +160
-- The Dodgers would be my favorite in the NL West, but I don’t see them running away with it. However, I can imagine some improvements in the pitching staff, and Joe Torre's team, though not dominant, will be solid all season this time. My projection was 89 wins, so this would be small recommendation, considering the price. OVER 82.5 (-210)
Milwaukee Brewers Regular Season Wins
Over 80½ Wins -145
Under 80½ Wins +115
-- I know that Milwaukee can hit the ball, but they are going to have to rebuild that starting pitching staff, to give Trevor Hoffman enough games to save. They really got going when C.C. Sabathia came aboard. He's gone, and so is Ben Sheets, who started the All-Star Game. My projection was 76 wins. UNDER 80.5 (+115)
New York Mets Regular Season Wins
Over 88½ Wins -125
Under 88½ Wins -105
-- Hey look - the Mets made the moves they had to make in the off-season, shoring up the bullpen problem, unless Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz BOTH go down with injuries. This is a solid favorite in the NL East, and I have them at 95 wins. OVER 88.5 (-125)
Philadelphia Phillies Regular Season Wins
Over 87½ Wins -150
Under 87½ Wins +120
-- I don't see last year's World Series titlists getting another championship year out of that rotation, and Brad Lidge won't repeat his MVP-caliber season from a season ago - will he? I do see the addition of Raul Ibanez to be a plus, though, and would look for a better year from Jimmy Rollins. My projection for the Phillies is actually the same as last year's record - 92 wins. OVER 87.5 (-150)
Pittsburgh Pirates Regular Season Wins
Over 69½ Wins +115
Under 69½ Wins -145
-- Pittsburgh has no pitching, My projection for them was 62 wins, and it could be less. I could not see them getting to 70. UNDER 69.5 (-145)
San Diego Padres Regular Season Wins
Over 71½ Wins -115
Under 71½ Wins -115
-- Because I like Jake Peavy and Chris Young so much, I made allowances for San Diego, and had them at 75 wins. if the offense tanks again, though, these guys will be like Koufax and Drysdale, having to pitch a shutout every time to win. NO PLAY
San Francisco Giants Regular Season Wins
Over 80½ Wins +115
Under 80½ Wins -145
-- San Francisco is another team that has offensive problems, although help may be on the way. This has the potential to be a great rotation, but also could bomb, if Barry Zito and Randy Johnson don't have big years. I have them at 81 wins, so we've got NO PLAY.
St Louis Cardinals Regular Season Wins
Over 82½ Wins -115
Under 82½ Wins -115
-- I give Tony LaRussa credit for being a good manager, but St. Louis' pitching just doesn't excite me very much, and the lineup is not going to make up for it. There are enough good players that I can project 85 wins, but they'll have to play well and be healthy to do it. NO PLAY
Washington Nationals Regular Season Wins
Over 71½ Wins -135
Under 71½ Wins +105
-- Washington is going to improve upon last year's 59 wins, but it won't be enough to get competitive in the NL East. The pitching staff raises some red flags, and 72 wins is optimistic; I had it at 67, with a downside. UNDER 71.5 (+105)
