in MLB Props
MLB World Series Odds - Early Proposition Betting
by Charles Jay
The question today is: which teams have made the biggest strides toward fulfilling their goal of unseating the Philadelphia Phillies as World Series champs, and because of the changes (or even lack of same), who offers value in the BetUS odds?
Let's start with the numbers:
MLB odds
To Win 2009 World Series
Arizona Diamondbacks +2200
Atlanta Braves +3500
Boston Red Sox +800
Chicago Cubs +900
Chicago White Sox +2000
Cincinnati Reds +5000
Cleveland Indians +1800
Colorado Rockies +4000
Detroit Tigers +2000
Florida Marlins +3300
Houston Astros +3500
Los Angeles Angels +900
Los Angeles Dodgers +1400
Milwaukee Brewers +3500
Minnesota Twins +2500
New York Mets +800
New York Yankees +350
Oakland Athletics +4500
Philadelphia Phillies +1200
San Diego Padres +8000
Seattle Mariners +9000
St Louis Cardinals +2200
Tampa Bay Rays +1400
Toronto Blue Jays +3500
Washington Nationals +12500
Pittsburgh Pirates +12500
Baltimore Orioles +10000
Kansas City Royals +12500
Texas Rangers +5500
San Francisco Giants +5000
As one might expect, it has been the New York teams that have swung for the fences in off-season deals. the NEW YORK YANKEES (+350 at BetUS) signed starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and A.J, Burnett. Ideally, this will give the Bronx Bombers a deep pitching staff. Obviously, though, there are going to be some question marks. Though Sabathia, the AL's Cy Young winner two seasons ago, is a bona fide #1 starter for just about any team, I am not completely sold on Burnett as someone who can deliver in the fashion the Yankees are paying him for ($82.5 million over five years), even after an 18-10 season, which at age 31 was the only time he won more than twelve.
The Yankees have Chien-Ming Wang (54-20 career record) coming back, which is good news, but remember that they lost Mike Mussina, who had one of his best seasons ever in 2008 (retired), and will probably lose Andy Pettitte to free agency. Will Joba Chamberlain ever be a consistent starter in the majors, considering his elbow problems? How dependable will other young pitchers like Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy be? Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi have departed, while Mark Teixiera (33 HR, 121 RBI last year) was signed as a free agent, and Nick Swisher came over in a trade. He'll take Giambi's place.
The NEW YORK METS (+800 at BetUS) knew they had a weakness, and went out to directly address it. The Mets bullpen blew 29 saves last year, and some of that was due to the fact that Billy Wagner got injured. So all they did was go out and sign Francisco Rodriguez, who set a record with 62 saves last season, as a free agent, and traded for J.J. Putz, who was formerly Seattle's ace closer. Putz will be used as a setup man for K-Rod. To top it off, it's possible that Wagner will be back sometime in the second half of the season, after Tommy John surgery. The Mets will score enough runs, but they have to fill out the rotation. They missed out on Derek Lowe but are focused on keeping Oliver Perez. If they can do that, they can overtake Philadelphia in the NL East, and challenge Chicago for supremacy in the NL.
I would not discount the possibility of the CLEVELAND INDIANS (+1800 at BetUS) contending. Remember that they are only a year removed from being in the AL Championship Series, and came back from a pathetic start and last place in the AL Central to finish at the .500 mark, doing that WITHOUT Sabathia, who had already been traded. The signing of Kerry Wood gives them a closer. It would not surprise me at all to see them move past the White Sox to a division title.
The BOSTON RED SOX (+800 at BetUS) probably won't have Curt Schilling again, but they won't need him, not with the acquisition of Brad Penny from Los Angeles. Penny, who started the All-Star game in 2006, had an off-year last season (6-9, 6.27 ERA) but was 32-13 in the previous two years. He is a prime candidate for a comeback. Maybe that same description fits John Smoltz, who had a 2.57 ERA before going out with an injury in 2008. He was 44-24 in the previous three seasons, and before his season was ended with the shoulder ailment. Before that, he was popping his fastball at 97 miles an hour. He was throwing off a mound in December. If he comes back and has another season in him, he's a big bonus, as either a fifth starter or a high-powered setup man for Jonathan Papelbon. Rocco Baldelli is more of an iffy proposition than Smoltz, but the Sox don't need to count on him as a starter in center, since they have Jacoby Ellsbury. Ramon Ramirez (2.64 ERA in '08) comes from Kansas City to strengthen the bullpen. They just need to straighten things out at catcher, whether it's another season with Jason Varitek or a replacement.
The TAMPA BAY RAYS (+1400 at BetUS) are the American League champs, in case you forgot, and they addressed one of their needs by getting more power with Pat Burrell, the heavy hitter from the Phillies. When Burrell was at the University of Miami, I thought he would become a consistent .300 hitter. He hasn't done that, but he's hit 124 homers in the last four years. Edwin Jackson, a sometimes dominant pitcher, was dealt, but Tampa Bay has a lot of people in waiting, including David Price, so they'll contend again.
All of this having been said, there are still players out there who could help tilt the balance of power; who can put one team over the top. The most prominent among them? MANNY RAMIREZ.
Where will he land? New York? San Francisco? Back in Los Angeles?
We'll be watching, because it could make all the difference.
(Charles Jay hit an occasional home run as a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)
